债市策略思考：如何看待债市春节后波动加大

Core Insights - The bond market is transitioning from a wide monetary expectation trading narrative to a policy game as the Spring Festival approaches, with profit-taking and risk aversion driving adjustments in the bond market. The short-term outlook suggests a period of volatility, with most investors likely to adopt a "watch and wait" approach [1][7]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The trading narrative in the bond market is gradually shifting, with the pre-Spring Festival rally driven by external pressures from the equity market and internal factors from wide monetary expectations. The 10-year government bond yield broke through the 1.80% resistance level, but the trading volume during this period showed significant contraction, indicating that the rally may not fully reflect market consensus [1][17]. - The core driver of the recent bond market recovery is attributed to investors rushing to capitalize on wide monetary expectations, which formed the main trading narrative before the Spring Festival. Post-holiday, the bond market has seen continuous adjustments, with the 30-year government bond futures breaking below the 20-day moving average, suggesting that the rebound may be nearing its end [2][21]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Pre-holiday, the demand for passive allocation, low-duration opportunities, and the desire to hold bonds through the holiday collectively pushed funds to become marginal pricing forces driving interest rates down. In the last week before the Spring Festival, institutional net purchases of bond funds reached a strength of 0.63, the highest weekly value in nearly a year, with wealth management subsidiaries contributing 46.48% of this [3][25]. - The post-holiday adjustment in the bond market is fundamentally driven by profit-taking and risk aversion, as yields reached a temporary low. The sensitivity of trading positions to short-term gains led to collective profit-taking behavior, exacerbated by external shocks such as the "Shanghai Seven" policy announcement [4][29]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile state in the short term, with the previous wide monetary trading narrative nearing its end. The upcoming policy game surrounding the "Two Sessions" will be crucial in determining market direction, with institutional divergence on whether policies will exceed expectations. The presence of configuration forces from smaller banks and insurance companies provides a foundation against deep declines, while trading volatility may limit rebound potential [5][7][32].