2026年1月债券托管数据点评：广义基金减持创近3年新高商业银行主动增配驱动市场企稳

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the total bond custody scale increased by 75.76 billion yuan month - on - month, with the interest - rate bond custody increment rising significantly. The credit - bond custody increment also increased due to the net financing of short - term commercial paper, while the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) custody scale continued to decline. The domestic bond interest rates first rose and then fell. Commercial banks were the most important driving force for the market to stabilize, with large - scale purchases that pushed interest rates down, while the broad - based funds' reduction in bond holdings reached a three - year high [3][9]. - The bond market leverage ratio increased slightly in January, still at a relatively low level in recent years. Among institutions, the leverage ratio of commercial banks and non - bank institutions increased, with securities companies significantly increasing leverage and the broad - based funds remaining stable [4][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 January: Interest - rate Bond Net Financing Significantly Rebounded, Driving the Custody Scale Higher, but NCDs Continued Net Repayment - The total bond custody scale increased by 75.76 billion yuan month - on - month, 45.5 billion yuan more than in December. The interest - rate bond custody increment was 107.85 billion yuan, about 38 billion yuan higher than the previous month. The custody increments of local bonds, treasury bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased. The short - term commercial paper turned to net financing, leading to an increase in the credit - bond custody increment. The NCD custody scale decreased by 65.62 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 3.38 billion yuan compared to the previous month [3][9]. 3.2 The Reduction Scale of Broad - based Funds Reached a Three - year High, and Commercial Banks' Active Allocation Drove the Market to Stabilize 3.2.1 Broad - based Funds - In January, the bond custody volume of broad - based funds decreased by 70.75 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline significantly expanding by 60.82 billion yuan compared to the previous month, reaching a new high since the beginning of 2023. They mainly reduced their holdings of policy - financial bonds, and increased the reduction scale of NCDs and treasury bonds [18]. 3.2.2 Securities Companies - The bond custody volume of securities companies increased from a decrease of 230 million yuan in the previous month to an increase of 699 million yuan in January. They mainly increased their holdings of policy - financial bonds and started to increase their holdings of financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House, but reduced their holdings of local bonds and credit - asset - backed securities [27]. 3.2.3 Insurance Companies - The bond custody volume of insurance companies decreased from an increase of 400 million yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 84 million yuan in January. They reduced their increase in holdings of treasury bonds and NCDs, started to reduce their holdings of local bonds and financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House, but decreased the reduction scale of policy - financial bonds and started to increase their holdings of medium - term notes [31][33]. 3.2.4 Overseas Institutions - The bond custody scale of overseas institutions decreased by 10.78 billion yuan month - on - month in January, with the decline narrowing by 4.31 billion yuan compared to the previous month. They mainly decreased the reduction scale of NCDs and started to increase their holdings of policy - financial bonds [35]. 3.2.5 Other Institutions - The bond custody of other institutions increased by 25.91 billion yuan month - on - month in January, with the increase expanding by 7.66 billion yuan compared to the previous month. They started to increase their holdings of policy - financial bonds but decreased their increase in holdings of local government bonds and treasury bonds and started to reduce their holdings of NCDs [39]. 3.2.6 Commercial Banks - The bond custody scale of commercial banks increased by 112.38 billion yuan month - on - month in January, with the increase expanding by 25.73 billion yuan compared to the previous month. They mainly increased their holdings of local bonds and treasury bonds, started to increase their holdings of short - term commercial paper, and decreased the reduction scale of NCDs and commercial - bank bonds [45]. 3.2.7 Credit Unions - The bond custody scale of credit unions increased from a decrease of 982 million yuan in the previous month to an increase of 797 million yuan in January. They mainly started to increase their holdings of NCDs, policy - financial bonds, and treasury bonds and increased their increase in holdings of local bonds [46]. 3.3 In January, the Bond Market Leverage Ratio Slightly Rebounded, Slightly Exceeding Seasonality, with Securities Companies Increasing Leverage and Broad - based Funds Remaining Stable - In January, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.1 percentage points month - on - month to 107.9%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.2%, and the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 0.1 percentage points to 119.0%. Among non - bank institutions, the leverage ratio of securities companies increased by 6.4 percentage points to 223.7%, while the leverage ratios of insurance and non - legal - person products remained basically flat at 115.8% [4][54].