3月煤焦承压运行，关注宏观政策变化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In February, the spot market for coal and coke fluctuated narrowly, while futures prices oscillated downward with slight basis fluctuations. The domestic coking coal and coke market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices lacking a clear one - way driver and maintaining a weak oscillatory trend. After the Spring Festival, mines gradually resumed production, Mongolian coal customs clearance returned to normal, coke - producing enterprises maintained stable production, and hot metal output increased slightly compared to before the festival [2]. - In March, major coal - producing areas will fully resume production, significantly increasing supply. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is expected to remain high, further increasing domestic supply and putting pressure on coal mine inventory accumulation. On the demand side, steel mills will gradually resume production in March, driving up hot metal output and providing rigid support for coking coal and coke demand. However, due to doubts about the recovery strength of terminal steel demand, the resumption strength and inventory replenishment willingness of steel mills will be restricted, and there is still an expectation of coke price cuts. Overall, the coking coal and coke market in March will present a situation where "supply recovers faster than demand starts", suppressing prices. Key points to focus on include safety and environmental protection production - limit policies during the "Two Sessions", the deepening of anti - involution and energy - consumption control policies, and the impact of international crude oil price changes on energy prices [2]. - The recommended trend is that coal and coke futures prices will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Valuation - Coal Futures: In February, coking coal futures prices were weakly oscillatory, and the basis fluctuated slightly [7]. - Coal Spot: The prices of main coking coal in major regions were stable, while the prices of blended coal fluctuated narrowly. The warehouse - receipt prices in major regions were stable with a weakening trend [10][13][16]. - Coke Futures: In February, coke futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and the basis fluctuated slightly [45]. - Coke Spot: Coke spot prices were stable [48]. 3.2 Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Coking Coal Supply - Production: In February, the coking coal mine start - up rate decreased seasonally, and daily output decreased. The start - up rate and daily output of coal washing plants also decreased. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal decreased slightly [6][21]. - Import: In December, coking coal imports increased month - on - month, with increases in both Mongolian and Russian coal imports [27]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal Demand - In February, the daily consumption of independent coke - producing enterprises and steel - mill coke - producing enterprises increased slightly, and the total daily consumption increased [6]. 3.2.3 Coke Supply - In February, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke - producing enterprises increased, and the average daily coke output increased. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of steel - mill coke - producing enterprises were relatively stable [6][55]. 3.2.4 Coke Demand - In February, hot metal daily output increased slightly, and the blast furnace start - up rate increased [6]. 3.3 Inventory 3.3.1 Coking Coal Inventory - The total coking coal inventory decreased, and the inventories of mines, coal - washing plants, ports, independent coke - producing enterprises, and steel - mill coke - producing enterprises all decreased. The proportion of independent coke - producing enterprise inventory decreased, and the proportion of mine inventory increased. Port inventory decreased slightly [30][33][37]. 3.3.2 Coke Inventory - The total coke inventory increased. The inventory of independent coke - producing enterprises increased, while the inventories of steel mills and ports decreased. Steel - mill inventory decreased, the number of available days decreased, and hot metal output increased. Port inventory decreased [61][67][70]. 3.4 Profit - Coke Profit: The profit of coke - producing enterprises increased month - on - month but remained in a loss state, and the port - collection profit increased slightly [73]. 3.5 Arbitrage - The report provides tracking data on coal - coke arbitrage, including the spread between different coke contracts, the coal - coke ratio, the coke - steel ratio, and the coal - iron ratio, but recommends waiting and seeing for arbitrage [77]