美以联合突袭伊朗，中东地缘政治风险陡增

Geopolitical Risks - The joint military action by the US and Israel against Iran signifies the collapse of negotiations, exacerbating regional tensions[4] - Iran's internal stability is fragile, with significant economic challenges leading to widespread protests and unrest[7] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to escalate into a high-risk zone, potentially forcing the US to shift from offshore balancing to deeper ground intervention[11] Military Actions and Responses - Israel launched a "preemptive" strike against Iran, targeting multiple sites in Tehran, with the US providing military support[5] - The conflict is anticipated to escalate beyond previous engagements, with significant military firepower and destruction expected[12] - Iran may retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for approximately 30% of global oil transport, which could lead to a surge in oil prices[13] Economic Implications - The escalation of geopolitical risks is likely to disrupt global oil supply, causing international oil prices to rise sharply[14] - Following the military actions, major US stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.05%[14] - Gold prices surged, reflecting increased investor demand for safe-haven assets, with spot gold nearing $5,300 per ounce[14]