——解构宏观流动性系列之一：重构信贷收支表：连接货币政策与银行行为

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The research starts with how bank behavior affects M2, aiming to connect monetary policy and bank behavior through reconstructing the credit balance sheet to understand bank behavior and the transmission path of monetary policy [3][29][32] - Reconstructing the credit balance sheet can more comprehensively reflect bank behavior and the orientation of monetary policy, and help investors analyze bank behavior [4][5][136] - The change in bank net lending and non - bank holding of certificates of deposit has a significant impact on M2 growth, and the central bank's regulation of bank liquidity is crucial for achieving the M2 target [9][160][172] - The scale of bank bond investment is mainly determined by government bond supply, and the difference between bank bond purchases and supply can reflect the bank's active allocation willingness and affect the market trend [10][173] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Introduction - Starting the Research from How Bank Behavior Affects M2 - Bank behavior analysis is important for understanding the bond market and monetary policy. The central bank affects bank behavior through liquidity regulation to achieve monetary policy goals [20][24][29] - The monthly credit balance sheet provides information on the bank's capital sources and uses, and the research starts with how bank behavior affects M2, but the change in M2 is often dominated by other items [25][28][29] 2. Different Levels of the Credit Balance Sheet and Their Underlying Arithmetic Relationships 2.1 Institutions Covered by the Credit Balance Sheet - The credit balance statistics involve banking financial institutions, divided into deposit - taking and non - deposit - taking financial institutions. There are three levels of credit balance sheets with different statistical scopes [33][35][36] 2.2 Classification Criteria for Deposits and Loans in Each Level of the Credit Balance Sheet - There are differences in the deposit and loan items of different levels of credit balance sheets. The total deposits and loans of large and small banks are different from those of deposit - taking financial institutions and financial institutions, mainly due to the different scope of institutions included [47][48][54] 2.3 Arithmetic Relationships in Financial Investments of Each Level of the Credit Balance Sheet - Items such as repurchase, reverse repurchase, and inter - bank transactions are aggregated into the "other" item in the deposit - taking institution's statement after netting [71] - The bond investment and financial bond items of large and small banks are netted and included in the deposit - taking institution's statement [73] - Transactions between large/small banks and the central bank are netted out in the deposit - taking institution's statement [76] 3. Verifying the Connotations of Each Item in the Credit Balance Sheet with Micro - data 3.1 The Bond Investment Item Mainly Includes Government Bonds, Local Bonds, and Credit Bonds Held by Deposit - taking Institutions - The bond investment item in the deposit - taking institution's credit balance sheet mainly includes government bonds, local bonds, and credit bonds, and the data is verified by custody data [83][86] 3.2 Financial Bonds - Non - bank Institutions Hold Policy Financial Bonds and Commercial Bank Bonds - The financial bond item in the credit balance sheet mainly reflects non - bank institutions' holdings of financial bonds, and the data is verified by comparing with non - bank institutions' custody data [90] 3.3 The Netting of Financial Inter - bank Transactions Mainly Includes Non - bank Institutions' Holdings of Certificates of Deposit - The netting of inter - bank transactions mainly reflects non - bank institutions' holdings of certificates of deposit, which can reduce the bank's dependence on deposits and affect M2 [97][100][102] 3.4 The Netting of Repurchase and Reverse Repurchase is Mainly the Difference between Bank Net Lending and the Central Bank's Pledged and Outright Repurchase Balances - The netting of repurchase and reverse repurchase is equivalent to the bank's net lending to non - bank institutions after deducting central bank financing, which can affect M2 [107][117][119] 3.5 Replacing the Relevant Items in the Credit Balance Sheet with the Foreign Net Assets Item in the Deposit - taking Company Overview - The foreign - related items in the credit balance sheet mainly reflect the central bank's foreign assets and liabilities, and the foreign net assets item in the deposit - taking company overview is used to replace them [124] 3.6 The Equity and Other Investment Item Mainly Includes Non - standard and Inter - bank Investments - The equity and other investment item includes non - standard investments and inter - bank assets such as funds, and its scale has changed due to regulatory policies [131] 4. Reconstructing the Credit Balance Sheet - Connecting Monetary Policy and Bank Behavior 4.1 Observing the Reasons for M2 Changes from the Deposit Structure - Analyzing the deposit structure can find that different types of deposits have different impacts on M2, and the so - called "deposit transfer" is a false proposition at the bank system level [137][141][142] 4.2 Inferring M2 Changes from the Perspective of Capital Use - Reconstructing the credit balance sheet by adding some items from large and small banks can more accurately analyze the reasons for M2 changes [149][150][155] - The recent improvement in M2 growth is mainly due to the increase in bank net lending, while the impact of foreign net assets is relatively small [160][161] - The reconstructed credit balance sheet reflects the transmission path of monetary policy, and financial investment - related items can be important tools for the central bank to adjust M2 growth [168][172] - By analyzing the credit balance sheets of large and small banks, the reasons for the changes in their deposit structures can be inferred, and the central bank's policy attitude affects bank behavior [181][183][192]