玻璃周报：节后高库存压制，开门红涨价依旧-20260228

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Glass Market - After the Spring Festival, the supply of the float glass market remained stable, but the demand was weak. Most downstream processing plants had not resumed work, and the demand release was slow. Traders mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. Due to the difficulty in shipping of original sheet enterprises during the Spring Festival, the industry inventory increased significantly. Although manufacturers generally raised prices during the "good start" period, the price increase faced significant resistance under the background of weak demand and high inventory. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1015 - 1120 yuan/ton [12][13]. Soda Ash Market - During the Spring Festival, the maintenance of soda ash plants was limited, and the supply remained stable. Downstream enterprises mostly consumed their previous stockpiles, and combined with the obstruction of logistics and transportation, the manufacturer's inventory increased significantly. After the festival, the shutdown and maintenance of Sichuan Hebang's soda ash plant and the news of overseas production capacity idling boosted the market sentiment in the short term, pushing the center of the futures price up slightly. In the spot market, the wait - and - see sentiment was still strong. The downstream of light soda ash had not fully resumed work, and the downstream of heavy soda ash mainly purchased on demand, with low enthusiasm for purchasing. The main consumer industries such as glass and detergents were still in the transition stage of resuming work and production, and the actual procurement release was slow. Overall, there were few maintenance plans for soda ash plants in the near future, and the supply side changed little. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow - range volatile pattern, with the reference range of the main contract being 1120 - 1250 yuan/ton [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Report 3.1.1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of float glass was 1050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the main contract was 1058 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton week - on - week. The profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 142.26 yuan/ton, up 24.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3150 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal was - 30.79 yuan/ton, down 1.92 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke was 43.93 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.86 tons, unchanged week - on - week, with 209 production lines in operation, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 70.61%. The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 6.35 days, down 2.95 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 14.60%, down 23.90% week - on - week. In 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to December was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the production and sales data of automobiles were 329.60/327.22 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%/6.20%; from January to December, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.10/3440.00 million vehicles. The national float glass inventory in factories was 7600.8 million heavy boxes, up 2065.60 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the inventory in factories in the Shahe area was 212.64 million heavy boxes, up 54.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [12]. 3.1.2. Futures and Spot Market - As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of float glass was 1050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the main contract was 1058 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 01 - 05 spread of glass was 163 yuan/ton (+5), the 05 - 09 spread was - 101 yuan/ton (-5), the 09 - 01 spread was - 62 yuan/ton (+0), and the open interest reached 1.5309 million lots [17][20]. 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - As of February 27, 2026, the profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 142.26 yuan/ton, up 24.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3150 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal was - 30.79 yuan/ton, down 1.92 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke was 43.93 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [26][29]. 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - As of February 27, 2026, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.86 tons, unchanged week - on - week, with 209 production lines in operation, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 70.61%. As of January 30, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 6.35 days, down 2.95 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 14.60%, down 23.90% week - on - week. In 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to December was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the production and sales data of automobiles were 329.60/327.22 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%/6.20%; from January to December, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.10/3440.00 million vehicles [33][36][39]. 3.1.5. Inventory - As of February 27, 2026, the national float glass inventory in factories was 7600.8 million heavy boxes, up 2065.60 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the inventory in factories in the Shahe area was 212.64 million heavy boxes, up 54.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [46]. Soda Ash Report 3.2.1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1151 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the main contract was 1191 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 162.15 yuan/ton, down 0.90 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 69.5 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 731 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3150 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly output of soda ash was 79.09 tons, up 0.28 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.04%. The output of heavy soda ash was 42.3 tons, up 0.32 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 36.79 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.86 tons, unchanged week - on - week, with 209 production lines in operation, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 70.61%. The inventory of soda ash in factories was 189.44 tons, up 30.64 tons week - on - week; the available inventory days were 14.26 days, up 1.09 days week - on - week. The inventory of heavy soda ash in factories was 89.59 yuan/ton, up 13.95 yuan/ton week - on - week; the inventory of light soda ash in factories was 99.85 yuan/ton, up 16.69 yuan/ton week - on - week [56]. 3.2.2. Futures and Spot Market - As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1151 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the main contract was 1191 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was 112 yuan/ton (-2), the 05 - 09 spread was - 64 yuan/ton (+1), the 09 - 01 spread was - 48 yuan/ton (+1), and the open interest reached 1.5309 million lots [61][64]. 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - As of February 27, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 162.15 yuan/ton, down 0.90 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 69.5 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 731 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3150 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2094 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton week - on - week [71][74][77]. 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - As of February 27, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 79.09 tons, up 0.28 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.04%. The output of heavy soda ash was 42.3 tons, up 0.32 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 36.79 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.86 tons, unchanged week - on - week, with 209 production lines in operation, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 70.61% [81][84][87]. 3.2.5. Inventory - As of February 27, 2026, the inventory of soda ash in factories was 189.44 tons, up 30.64 tons week - on - week; the available inventory days were 14.26 days, up 1.09 days week - on - week. The inventory of heavy soda ash in factories was 89.59 yuan/ton, up 13.95 yuan/ton week - on - week; the inventory of light soda ash in factories was 99.85 yuan/ton, up 16.69 yuan/ton week - on - week [91][94].