沥青周报：估值空配-20260228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "Valuation Short Allocation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the recovery of production and the alleviation of external trade pressure, the valuation of asphalt is expected to decline. It is recommended to short - allocate the asphalt/crude oil price - to - value ratio [15] - In the medium - term, the downward movement of asphalt valuation is likely. The upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil) and the unilateral price of asphalt will be restricted [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The report presents the recent trend of the asphalt main contract, showing the impact of supply - demand and cost factors [13][14] - Weekly Assessment: In terms of supply, the domestic production of heavy - traffic asphalt has entered the traditional peak season, while overseas imports remain relatively low. In terms of demand, the demand for waterproofing membranes is better than expected, and overall demand has slightly recovered compared to previous years. Inventory is affected by trade imports and is better than before, but port arrivals may suppress inventory reduction in the inland. The upward space of the crude oil cost is limited, and OPEC is expected to enter a new cycle of slight production increase [15] - Strategy Recommendation: The previous view was to hold a wait - and - see attitude towards all oil products. The current view is to short - allocate the asphalt/crude oil price - to - value ratio due to the expected decline in asphalt valuation [15] - Medium - term Factors and Assessment: In the medium - term, supply, demand, and cost factors are all expected to have a negative impact on asphalt valuation. The upward space of asphalt valuation and the unilateral price of asphalt will be restricted [16] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, East China, Northeast China, and North China [20][21] - Basis Trend: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China [27] - Term Structure: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts [30] 3.3 Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profit: The report shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, the production profit of Shandong asphalt, and the relationship between asphalt production and profit and crude oil price [35] - Imports: It presents the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, import profit, and the cumulative import volume from different countries [37][40] - Valuation Ratio: It shows the ratios of fuel oil to asphalt and asphalt to Brent [43] - Refinery Profit: It presents the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the production profit and start - up rate of petroleum coke [46][49] 3.4 Inventory - Domestic Inventory: It shows the inventory of domestic factories, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and the port inventory of diluted asphalt [53] - Warehouse Receipts: It presents the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [57] - Inventory and Price: It shows the relationship between inventory and profit, and the relationship between profit and price [61] 3.5 Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [67] - Downstream Start - up Rate: It presents the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [74][72] - Highway Investment: It shows the cumulative investment in highway construction, the monthly year - on - year change and monthly value of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [77] - Road - related Machinery: It presents the monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the cumulative investment in highway construction [80] - Related Consumption: It shows the cumulative year - on - year change of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management, and the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds [83][84] 3.6 Related Indicators - Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility: It presents the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [90][92] 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industrial Chain: It briefly mentions the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [96] - Asphalt Industrial Chain: From the production process, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used for road construction. By use, it can be divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [99]