Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-02-28 13:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all listed companies in the coal sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the contraction in overseas supply is catalyzing domestic coal demand, leading to an expected continuous rise in coal prices. Factors such as reduced supply from Indonesia and Russia, along with increased domestic consumption, are driving this trend. The anticipated price range for coal is projected to be between 750-1000 RMB/ton, with seasonal fluctuations expected [7][9]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance [9][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. Jin控煤业 2. 山煤国际 3. 潞安环能 4. 华阳股份 5. 兖矿能源 6. 中国神华 7. 陕西煤业 8. 中煤能源 9. 中广核矿业 10. 新集能源 11. 淮北矿业 12. 兰花科创 (cautious recommendation) [2][14]. Market Performance - As of February 27, the coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 5.7%, outperforming the broader market indices such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component [16][19]. - The report notes that the coking coal sub-sector has experienced the highest weekly increase of 10.7% [19]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of international supply disruptions, particularly from Russia and Indonesia, on coal prices and domestic demand. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring these external factors as they significantly influence market conditions [9][26]. - The report also highlights the recovery in domestic coal production and consumption patterns post-holiday, indicating a gradual return to normal supply-demand dynamics [11][31]. Price Tracking - Recent data shows that coal prices at major production sites have increased, with specific prices reported for various regions, indicating a general upward trend in coal pricing [10][45].