2026年乘用车：以高端、出海为矛破局

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The passenger car market in China is expected to maintain resilient growth in 2025, with wholesale sales projected to reach 23.797 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6% driven by policy support and consumer recovery [8] - The export of passenger cars is anticipated to reach 5.731 million units in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 21%, benefiting from the accelerated expansion of domestic brands in overseas markets and the enhanced competitiveness of domestic new energy vehicles [8] - The trend of new energy vehicles replacing traditional fuel vehicles continues, with the insurance volume of pure electric passenger cars expected to reach 7.787 million units in 2025, an increase of 148.6 thousand units year-on-year, while fuel vehicle sales are projected to decrease by 164.5 thousand units [21] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Analysis - In 2025, the domestic passenger car wholesale sales are projected to be 23.797 million units, up 6% year-on-year, supported by policy and consumer recovery [8] - The insurance volume for domestic passenger cars is expected to be 22.995 million units, remaining flat year-on-year [21] Export Market Analysis - The export volume of passenger cars is expected to reach 5.731 million units in 2025, marking a 21% increase year-on-year [8] New Energy Vehicle Trends - The insurance volume of pure electric vehicles is projected to be 7.787 million units in 2025, contributing significantly to the overall growth, while fuel vehicle sales are expected to decline [21] - The market share of new energy vehicles continues to rise, with a notable increase in the number of new energy vehicles being registered [21] Price Segment Analysis - The market for passenger cars priced below 200,000 yuan remains concentrated, with a total sales volume of 15.098 million units in 2025, accounting for 66% of the overall market [27] - BYD leads the market with a sales volume of 3.023 million units, holding a market share of 20% [28] High-End Market Dynamics - In the 300,000 to 500,000 yuan segment, domestic brands are gaining market share, with sales of 3.154 million units, a 2% increase year-on-year [33] - The luxury segment remains dominated by traditional brands, but domestic brands are increasingly entering this space [33] Competitive Landscape - The top five companies in the new energy vehicle segment include Geely, Xiaomi, and Leap Motor, which have shown significant growth in sales [23] - The competitive dynamics in the high-end market are shifting, with new entrants challenging established luxury brands [73]