ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2026-02-28 13:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal sector [2][5]. Core Views - The coal sector is expected to perform well due to supply constraints and favorable market narratives, with a focus on potential investment opportunities in coal stocks [1][6]. - Multiple factors are driving coal prices upward, including tightening global supply, geopolitical risks, and domestic demand dynamics [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 2,099.95 billion CNY [2]. - The circulating market value of the industry is around 2,056.85 billion CNY [2]. 2. Price Tracking - Domestic coal prices have shown an upward trend, with significant increases in both imported and domestic coal prices noted [7][8]. - As of February 27, 2026, the price of Indonesian coal (Q5500) at Guangzhou Port was 852.3 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal supply is expected to remain limited in the short term due to strict safety regulations and the upcoming important meetings in March [7]. - Indonesian coal exports are anticipated to contract due to regulatory uncertainties and the onset of Ramadan, which may further tighten supply [8]. 4. Inventory Levels - As of February 27, 2026, coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.96 million tons, down 18.16% year-on-year [8]. - The inventory levels are relatively low, which may support higher coal prices in the near future [8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several key stocks to watch, including China Shenhua, Yancoal, and Huainan Mining, which are expected to benefit from the current market conditions [8][9]. - The investment strategy focuses on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity and profitability potential [8][9].