棉花周报：郑棉增仓上涨，提前博弈旺季-20260228

Report Title - Zhengmian Increases Positions and Rises, Anticipating the Peak Season in Advance: Cotton Weekly Report 2026/02/28 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures significantly increased positions and rose. The market is anticipating the peak season in March in advance. Attention should be paid to the downstream startup situation in March. If it cooperates, Zhengzhou cotton still has room to rise. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: From February 12th to 19th, US current - year cotton export sales were 60,900 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.0507 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 156,900 tons. Exports to China were 600 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 98,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,800 tons. As of February 27th, the spinning mill startup rate was 64.6%, a 24.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.36 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. In January, the forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton output was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. In January, the forecast for US cotton output was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast. Brazil's output forecast remained at 4.08 million tons; India's output was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's output was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons. On February 21st, US President Trump raised the 10% global import tariff announced the previous day to 15% [9]. - Viewpoints and Strategies: After the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures increased positions and rose. The market is anticipating the March peak season in advance. Focus on the downstream startup situation in March. If it cooperates, Zhengzhou cotton still has room to rise. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [9]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis is 1,324 yuan/ton with a +0.5 long - short score, indicating a strengthening basis. The Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 15 yuan/ton with a +0 score, showing little change. The spinning immediate profit is - 1,924 yuan/ton with a +0 score, indicating a decrease in profit. The Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread is 193 yuan/ton with a +1 score, indicating a strong price in the production area. The FC index M 1% is 12,883 yuan/ton and the FC index M sliding - scale tariff is 13,901 yuan/ton with a - 0.5 score, indicating that domestic valuation is relatively high compared to the international market. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: The unilateral strategy is to buy on pullbacks, driven by the reduction in the new - year planting area and good macro - expectations [11]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - Spot Price and Basis: The report shows the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25]. - Import Profit: It presents the trends of the 1% tariff internal - external spread and the sliding - scale tariff internal - external spread from 2022 to 2026 [26][27]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread: It shows the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread and the 5 - 9 spread in different contract years [28][29]. - Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit: It presents the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill immediate profit from 2022 to 2026 [30][31]. - External Market Spread: It shows the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [34][35]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - Domestic Cotton Output: It shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and the Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price [38][39]. - Cotton Import Volume: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes from 2020/21 to 2024/25 [40][41]. - US Export Contract Quantity to China: It shows the trends of the US cumulative and weekly export contract quantities to China from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [42][43]. - Cotton Yarn Import Volume: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [44][45]. - Downstream Startup Rate: It shows the trends of the spinning mill and weaving mill startup rates from 2022 to 2026 [47][48]. - National Sales Progress: It presents the trends of the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [50][51]. - Cotton Inventory: It shows the trends of China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly commercial + industrial cotton inventory from 2021 to 2026 [52][53]. - Spinning Mill's Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory: It presents the trends of the spinning mill's cotton inventory and yarn inventory days from 2022 to 2026 [54][55]. 3.4. International Market Situation - US Planting Situation: It shows the trends of the proportion of non - drought - affected planting areas and the cotton good - quality rate in the US from 2022 to 2026 [58][59]. - US Production Situation: It presents the trends of the US bi - weekly and cumulative cotton processing volumes from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [60][61]. - US Output and Planting Area: It shows the trends of the US cotton output forecast and the planting area from 2022 to 2026 [62][64]. - US Export Contract Progress: It presents the trends of the US current - year cumulative and weekly export contract volumes from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [65][66]. - US Export Shipment Volume: It shows the trends of the US annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [67][68]. - US Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: It presents the trends of the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and the inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2022 to 2026 [69]. - Brazil Output and Planting Area: It shows the trends of Brazil's cotton planting area and output from 2022 to 2026 [70][71]. - Brazil Export Volume: It presents the trends of Brazil's cotton export volume forecast and monthly export volume from 2021 to 2025 [73]. - Brazil Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: It shows the trends of Brazil's cotton supply surplus/shortage and the inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2022 to 2026 [74]. - India Output and Planting Area: It presents the trends of India's cotton planting area and output from 2022 to 2026 [75][76]. - India Consumption and Import and Export: It shows the trends of India's cotton consumption, import and export volumes from 2022 to 2026 [77][78]. - India Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: It presents the trends of India's cotton supply surplus/shortage and the inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2022 to 2026 [79].