PVC周报：春节累库落地，PVC交易现实-20260228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The domestic PVC market is currently characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The overall fundamentals are poor, with domestic demand being weak and unable to reverse the pattern of oversupply. Although there is a short - term boost in exports due to the rush to export before the cancellation of export tax rebates, there is significant pressure on exports in the medium term. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is limited, and downstream domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: Wuhai calcium carbide price is reported at 2,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan; Shandong calcium carbide price is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 165 yuan; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 735 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan. The integrated profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, while the profit of ethylene - based production has declined, and the current valuation is neutral [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 82.1%, unchanged from the previous week. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 81.7%, a 0.3% week - on - week decrease; the utilization rate of ethylene - based production is 83.2%, a 0.7% week - on - week increase. The supply side has changed little overall last week and remained at a high level. It is expected that the load will decline slightly next week. Although some enterprises may start spring inspections in March, due to the high absolute load level, the supply pressure is still expected to be large [11]. - Demand: In terms of exports, the export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the short - term has entered a stage of rushing to export. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering from the Spring Festival holiday. The load of pipes is 13.6%, a 13.6% week - on - week increase; the load of films is 26.4%, a 26.4% week - on - week increase; the load of profiles is 11.3%, an 11.3% week - on - week increase; the overall downstream load is 17.1%, a 17.1% week - on - week increase. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from the previous week [11]. - Inventory: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 504,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 1.353 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week; the overall inventory was 1.857 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased seasonally [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [15][16][19]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Inventory: The report shows multiple charts of PVC inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [31][36][37]. - Profit: The report shows multiple charts of PVC profit, including the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based profit, ethylene - based profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [42]. 3.4 Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have weakened significantly. Wuhai calcium carbide price and Shandong calcium carbide price have decreased week - on - week. The report also shows charts of calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda price, liquid chlorine price, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [45][46]. 3.5 Supply Side - The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, the raw materials consumed by the new production capacity, and the operating rates of PVC, calcium carbide - based PVC, and ethylene - based PVC. In 2025, a total of 2.5 million tons/year of new PVC production capacity was put into operation, including both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based processes [55][59]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of PVC's three major downstream industries (pipes, films, and profiles) are gradually recovering. The export volume of PVC and the export volume to India are also presented, as well as the pre - sales volume of PVC. There is also a chart showing the rolling cumulative year - on - year change in China's housing completion area, which is related to PVC demand. The export tax - rebate policy cancellation has led to a short - term rush to export [69][77][83].