OPEC+“温和”增产，苯乙烯价格震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ has a "moderate" production increase expectation on Sunday, leading to an upward - trending and fluctuating crude oil price, and the energy - chemical sector follows suit. The overall valuation of styrene is moderately high. The supply - side pressure of styrene eases, while the demand side enters the seasonal off - season. In the short term, styrene fluctuates with a bullish bias. The profit of non - integrated plants has been significantly repaired, and the EB - BZ spread has reached the high level in the same period of history. Currently, the profit is moderately high, and the long - position in non - integrated plant profit can be closed for profit. The predicted trading ranges for this week are 6000 - 6300 for pure benzene (BZ2603) and 7500 - 7800 for styrene (EB2604). [11][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Information: OPEC+ has a "moderate" production increase expectation, causing the crude oil price to fluctuate upwards, and the energy - chemical sector follows. The weekly decline of styrene is in the order of spot > cost > futures, with a strengthening basis and an increasing BZN spread. The profit of EB non - integrated plants rises. [11] - Cost Side: The spot price of East China pure benzene increased by 1.16% last week, the price of the active futures contract of pure benzene increased by 0.38%, the basis of pure benzene rose by 47 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of pure benzene rebounded from a low level. [11] - Supply Side: The utilization rate of EB production capacity is 71.08%, a 1.60% increase from the previous week, a 7.57% decrease compared to the same period last year, and an 8.75% decrease compared to the five - year average. The non - integrated profit of styrene fluctuates at a high level, and the operating rate fluctuates seasonally. In December, the domestic import volume of pure benzene was 5.3716 million tons, a 16.87% increase from the previous month and a 3.78% increase compared to the same period last year. The import volume of EB in December was 311,000 tons, a 17.67% increase from the previous month and a 65.68% increase compared to the same period last year. The port inventory of pure benzene shows marginal destocking, and the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports shows significant destocking. [11] - Demand Side: The weighted operating rate of downstream three - S products is 30.35%, a 19.75% decrease from the previous week. The operating rate of PS is 49.40%, a 0.60% decrease from the previous week and a 15.84% decrease compared to the same period last year. The operating rate of EPS is 12.18%, a 74.64% decrease from the previous week and a 78.73% decrease compared to the same period last year. The operating rate of ABS is 70.00%, a 1.60% increase from the previous week and a 4.10% decrease compared to the same period last year. It is the seasonal off - season, and the profits of downstream products are at the low level in the same period of history, with the operating rate decreasing seasonally. [12] - Inventory: The in - plant inventory of EB is 209,100 tons, a 30.01% increase from the previous week and a 17.50% decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports is 158,100 tons, a 64.35% increase from the previous week and a 0.88% decrease compared to the same period last year. The port inventory of pure benzene shows destocking, and the destocking of styrene port inventory slows down. [12] - Strategy Recommendation: The long - position in non - integrated plant profit can be closed for profit. [13] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts show the historical data of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, and various spreads, indicating that the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread first rose and then fell. [16][18][20][22][25][27][29][31] 3. Profit and Inventory - Inventory: The port inventory of pure benzene shows marginal destocking, and styrene continues to destock. The POSM profit of styrene is significantly repaired and reaches the high level in the same period. The production process of styrene is mainly the ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method, accounting for 85%. The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity. [37][40][43][45] - Profit: The POSM profit of styrene is significantly repaired and reaches the high - level in the same period. [40] 4. Cost Side - Supply - Side Capacity: In 2026, the production capacity growth rate of pure benzene and PS increases. The composition of Chinese pure benzene includes 71.0% petroleum benzene, 14.0% hydrogenated benzene, and 15.0% imported benzene. [50] - Price Spread: The BZN spread continues to repair. The gasoline crack spread in the United States fluctuates at a high level. [54][63] - Downstream Margins: The gross margins of phenol and aniline fluctuate at a low level, while the gross margin of caprolactam rebounds. The inventory of phenol in Jiangyin Port fluctuates seasonally. The downstream demand of pure benzene is mainly for styrene, accounting for 41%. [72][79][87][90] 5. Supply Side - The production of styrene fluctuates at a high level. The operating rate and import volume data of styrene are also presented. [97][99][100][101] 6. Demand Side - Capacity Forecast: Forecasts of the production capacity and output of PS, EPS, and ABS in the downstream of styrene are provided. [108][109] - Operating Rate: The operating rates of PS, EPS, and ABS fluctuate at a low level in the same period. [111][115][120] - Inventory: The weekly in - plant inventories of PS, EPS, and the weekly equity inventory of ABS producers are presented. [122][125][128] - Downstream Consumption: The downstream consumption of styrene mainly includes PS (35% for food packaging, daily necessities, and electronic casings), EPS (21% for building insulation materials and shock - proof packaging), and ABS (15% for household appliance casings, auto parts, and toys). The production and sales data of household refrigerators and washing machines are also provided, indicating that the year - on - year growth rate of washing machine production is moderately high. [130][131][135][140]