油脂周报：油脂价格震荡，等待回调做多机会-20260228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to market rumors that customs clearance for South American soybeans will be extended by 10 - 20 days, the short - term price of soybean oil is stronger than that of palm oil and rapeseed oil. Fundamentally, the vegetable oil inventories in China and India at the end of January further decreased to a relatively low level, but the decline in Malaysia's exports in February led to weakening oil prices. The medium - term outlook remains bullish. The strategy is to wait for the oil prices to stop falling at a low level and then try to buy [11]. - The annual consumption growth of oils and fats is greater than the production growth rate, and the medium - term outlook for oil prices is bullish [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2276000 tons, a decrease of 383000 tons from the previous month. From February 1 - 20, 2026, the palm oil production in South Malaysia decreased by 22.24% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreasing by 23.82% and the oil extraction rate increasing by 0.30%. In January, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1580000 tons, a decrease of 250000 tons from the previous month but an increase of 340000 tons compared to the same period last year; exports were 1480000 tons, an increase of 160000 tons from the previous month and 320000 tons compared to the same period last year; inventory was 2820000 tons, a decrease of 230000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1240000 tons compared to the same period last year. From February 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 922600 tons (AmSpec data) and 1022600 tons (ITS data), a decrease of 176400 tons and 141000 tons respectively compared to the same period last month. As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month but a decrease of 430000 tons compared to the same period last year. From February 13 - 20, the inventory of the three major oils in domestic samples was 1.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110000 tons. Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio. Starting from March 1, 2026, Indonesia will raise the export fee for crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5%, and the tax rate for refined products will also be increased by 2.5 percentage points [11]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis for soybean oil (Y) is 05 + 434 yuan/ton, for palm oil (P) is 05 + 0 yuan/ton, and for rapeseed oil (OI) is 05 + 795 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil is - 290 yuan/ton. The current production and inventory of major producing countries are at high levels. The global soybean production has a slight decrease, the global rapeseed is in a bumper harvest, and the global sunflower seed production has a slight decrease. China's oil inventory is relatively high, while India's oil inventory is relatively low. The overall strategy is to wait for the oil prices to stop falling at a low level and then try to buy [12]. - Trading Strategy Suggestion: For the unilateral strategy, wait for the price to pull back and then choose the opportunity to go long, as the annual consumption growth of oils and fats is greater than the production growth rate, and the medium - term outlook for oil prices is bullish. For the arbitrage strategy, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, as well as the price differences between different contracts, including the basis of palm oil May contract, Malaysian palm oil basis, basis of soybean oil May contract, basis of rapeseed oil May contract, price difference between soybean oil May and palm oil May contracts, price difference between palm oil 5 - 9 contracts, price difference between soybean oil 5 - 9 contracts, and price difference between rapeseed oil 5 - 9 contracts [20][24][26]. 3.3. Supply Side - The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the production and export of Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly import of rapeseed, and monthly import of rapeseed oil, which reflect the supply situation of different oils and fats [32][34][36]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - The report includes charts of the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, India's imported vegetable oil inventory, palm oil near - month import profit, palm oil commercial inventory, Guangdong imported soybean spot crushing profit, soybean oil inventory in major oil mills, rapeseed coastal spot average crushing profit, rapeseed oil commercial inventory, Malaysian palm oil inventory, and Indonesian palm oil inventory, which comprehensively reflect the profit and inventory situation of the oil and fat industry [41][43][45]. 3.5. Cost Side - The report presents charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, the near - month shipping import price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed, which reflect the cost situation of different oils and fats [52][55]. 3.6. Demand Side - Oil and Fat Transactions: The report shows the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil, which reflect the market demand for different oils and fats [60]. - Biodiesel Profit: The report presents the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which are related to the profit situation of biodiesel and reflect the demand for oils and fats in the biodiesel field [63].