镍周报：成本抬升支撑镍价偏强震荡-20260228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost increase supports the strong and volatile nickel price. The RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia is gradually implemented, and the nickel ore price center continues to rise, providing support for the nickel price. However, the short - term nickel supply - demand contradiction is still relatively limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly following the overall non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to go long on dips [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: This week, the nickel ore market in the Philippines was affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the rainy season, with light trading and limited supply. In Indonesia, the focus was on the RKAB mining quota approval, and the tightened quota led to a prominent shortage of ore for smelters. Although the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia declined slightly, the overall price remained strong [12]. - Ferronickel: The price of high - nickel pig iron remained strong this week, with the average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising to 1085 yuan per nickel point on Friday. The upstream manufacturers' quotes were firm, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement increased, driving the price up [12]. - Intermediate products: The nickel intermediate product market showed obvious differentiation. The supply of MHP shrank due to an accident in an Indonesian park, and the downstream restocked after resuming work, leading to an increase in quotes and the nickel coefficient. The supply and demand of high - grade nickel matte were both weak, and the nickel coefficient remained flat. The price of sulfur, a key auxiliary material, declined [12]. - Refined nickel: The nickel price rose slightly this week due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. As of Friday, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 140,980 yuan per ton, up 3.46% week - on - week. The spot trading was light. The Fed's January FOMC meeting minutes released a dovish signal, and the probability of a rate cut in June rose to 92%. The domestic social inventory increased by 2200 tons to 77,000 tons this week, and the LME inventory was basically flat. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the Shanghai nickel price expected to range from 130,000 to 160,000 yuan per ton and the LME 3M contract from 16,000 to 20,000 US dollars per ton [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The nickel price rose slightly this week due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. As of Friday, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2605 closed at 140,980 yuan per ton, up 3.46% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the import nickel premium remained stable at a low level, indicating a loose spot market. The ferronickel price rose steadily, and the premium of refined nickel over ferronickel returned to a normal level. The price of nickel sulfate fluctuated with the nickel price [17][19][22]. 3.3 Cost Side - Nickel ore: The domestic nickel ore port inventory continued to decline, and the nickel ore price remained strong. As the nickel price rose, the price of pyrometallurgical nickel ore also increased. Currently, the price of 1.6% - grade nickel ore in Indonesia has risen to 63.7 US dollars per ton, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore has risen to 27.5 US dollars per ton [27][28][30]. - Ferronickel production: In January, the nickel - iron production in Indonesia decreased by 15,000 tons month - on - month to 144,000 tons due to the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over ferronickel [33]. - Intermediate product production: In January, the production of MHP and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia increased significantly month - on - month due to the sharp rise in the MHP price and the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over ferronickel. The intermediate product coefficient price remained at a high level [37][41]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - Production: In January 2026, the national refined nickel production was 65,000 tons, an increase of 4417 tons compared with December 2025 [46]. - Demand: In January 2026, the domestic stainless - steel production was 3.032 million tons, an increase of 203,700 tons compared with November. The inventory level rebounded slightly from a low level [49]. - Import and export: The global refined nickel inventory continued to increase, mainly reflected in the domestic social inventory. As of February 27, the global refined nickel visible inventory was 364,000 tons, an increase of 3800 tons compared with last week [55]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - The supply of nickel sulfate remained stable. The domestic nickel sulfate production was relatively stable, and the import volume increased slightly. The production profit margin of nickel sulfate fluctuated around the break - even point [60][62][65]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides the supply - demand balance data of nickel from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, and inventory data of various nickel products. The global primary nickel supply exceeded demand, and the supply - demand gap showed an increasing trend. The global refined nickel supply - demand gap also showed a certain pattern of change, and the visible inventory continued to increase [68].