春节期间多地电力市场出现零负电价，"十五五"能源勘探开发进口税收优惠政策发布

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utilities industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After multiple rounds of power supply - demand contradictions in China, the power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value re - evaluation. The peak - shaving value of coal - fired power is prominent, and with the continuous advancement of power market reform, the electricity price is expected to rise slightly. The coal - fired power cost is relatively controllable. The performance of power operators is expected to improve significantly. For the natural gas sector, with the decline of upstream gas prices and the recovery of domestic natural gas consumption, the city gas business is expected to achieve stable gross margins and high growth in gas sales volume [5][85][87] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Week's Market Performance - As of the close on February 27, the utilities sector rose 5.7%, outperforming the market. The power sector rose 5.52%, and the gas sector rose 7.16%. Among sub - industries, the thermal power generation sector rose 8.93%, the hydropower generation sector rose 1.72%, the nuclear power generation sector rose 1.61%, the thermal service sector rose 5.99%, the comprehensive power service sector rose 12.37%, the photovoltaic power generation sector rose 8.25%, and the wind power generation sector rose 5.73% [4][13][15] 3.2 Power Industry Data Tracking - Power coal prices: In February, the annual long - term agreement price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port was 680 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton. As of February 27, the market price of Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port was 739 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan/ton. Overseas, the Newcastle NEWC5500 thermal coal FOB spot price was 87 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.70 US dollars/ton [23][25] - Power coal inventory and power plant daily consumption: As of February 27, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.08 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90,000 tons. As of February 26, the coal inventory of 17 inland provinces was 85.738 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.026 million tons; the daily consumption was 3.237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 742,000 tons/day. The coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces was 34.023 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 943,000 tons; the daily consumption was 1.575 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 384,000 tons/day [31][33] - Hydropower inflow situation: As of February 27, the Three Gorges outbound flow was 7,220 cubic meters per second, a year - on - year decrease of 15.26% and a week - on - week increase of 1.98% [46] - Key power market transaction electricity prices: In the Guangdong power market, as of February 27, the weekly average price of the day - ahead spot market was 274.91 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 31.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.3%. In the Shanxi power market, as of February 26, the weekly average price of the day - ahead spot market was 156.10 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 88.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 62.3%. In the Shandong power market, as of March 1, the weekly average price of the day - ahead spot market was 301.17 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 200.85% and a year - on - year increase of 33.4% [4][53][60] 3.3 Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - Domestic and international natural gas prices: As of February 27, the national index of LNG ex - factory prices at the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center was 3,608 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 21.07% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. As of February 26, the European TTF spot price was 10.84 US dollars/million British thermal units, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6% and a week - on - week decrease of 3.7% [59][62] - EU natural gas supply, demand and inventory: In the 5th week of 2026, the EU natural gas supply was 6.19 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% and a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. The EU natural gas consumption was estimated to be 11.33 billion cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 26.0%. The EU natural gas inventory was 46.876 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.22% and a week - on - week decrease of 9.89% [65][68][70] - Domestic natural gas supply and demand situation: In December 2025, the apparent domestic natural gas consumption was 38.57 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The domestic natural gas production was 22.98 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The LNG import volume was 8.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 22.2% [73][74] 3.4 This Week's Industry News - Power industry news: During the Spring Festival, zero/negative electricity prices appeared in many power markets in China, exposing the challenges of supply - demand mismatch and mechanism reshaping in the process of the power system's transformation to a high - proportion new energy system. Three departments issued a notice on import tax incentives for energy resource exploration, development and utilization during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, aiming to strengthen domestic oil and gas exploration and development and support natural gas import and utilization [5][79][86] - Natural gas industry news: The national monthly average price of PetroChina's pipeline gas in the open market in February was 2.335 yuan/cubic meter. Three departments issued a notice on import tax incentives for energy resource exploration, development and utilization during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [86] 3.5 This Week's Important Announcements - Gansu Energy received approval for the 2 - million - kilowatt wind power project in Minqin Shuangcike, which is part of the 6 - million - kilowatt new energy project in the Tengger Desert. However, the project faces risks such as the inability to invest and construct, the progress not meeting expectations, and the failure to achieve expected returns [84] 3.6 Investment Recommendations and Valuation Tables - Power sector: It is recommended to focus on national coal - fired power leaders such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International; regional leaders in areas with tight power supply such as Wanneng Power, Xinji Energy, and Zheneng Power; hydropower operators such as Yangtze Power, SDIC Power, and Huayang Hydropower; coal - fired power equipment manufacturers such as Dongfang Electric; and companies related to flexible transformation such as Huaguan Energy, Qingda Environmental Protection, and Longyuan Technology [5][85][87] - Natural gas sector: It is recommended to focus on XinAo Group and Guanghui Energy [6][87]