聚烯烃周报：春节后下游复工，PP反弹强度较大-20260228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ has an expectation of "moderate" production increase, and polyolefins fluctuate with crude oil prices. Against the background of low profits of various polyolefin production processes, the short - term rebound strength of PE is weaker than that of PP due to the addition of new PE production capacity and large import volume. The upstream capacity utilization rate may rebound after the Spring Festival. The PP2605 contract has no pressure from new production capacity, and the profit of BOPP on the demand side is better than in previous years, which may become an important marginal variable on the demand side. The alleviation of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices to continue to rebound [15][17][18]. - This week's forecast: The reference fluctuation range for polyethylene (LL2605) is (6700 - 7000); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6600 - 6900). The recommended strategy is to go long on PP2605 - PP2609 (positive spread strategy) [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Information - Policy: OPEC+ has an expectation of "moderate" production increase, and polyolefins fluctuate with crude oil prices [15]. - Valuation: The weekly increase of polyethylene (spot > futures > cost), the weekly increase of polypropylene (spot > futures > cost) [15]. - Cost: Last week, WTI crude oil rose 0.35%, Brent crude oil rose 0.71%, coal price rose 3.83%, methanol rose 2.38%, ethylene rose 0.21%, propylene rose 1.24%, and propane rose 6.57%. The cost side rebounded [15]. - Supply: PE capacity utilization rate was 87.64%, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.72%, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.17%, and a decrease of - 6.37% compared with the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate was 74.67%, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.80%, a year - on - year decrease of - 6.87%, and a decrease of - 18.85% compared with the five - year average [15]. - Import and Export: In January, domestic PE imports were 1.3299 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.62%. PP imports were 205,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.81% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.83%. Import profits decreased, and the supply from North America for PE decreased, reducing the pressure on the import side. In January, PE exports were 92,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.27% and a year - on - year increase of 58.30%. PP exports were 230,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.89% and a year - on - year increase of 29.81%. The continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate put pressure on the import side [15]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE was 18.22%, a month - on - month decrease of - 7.98% and a year - on - year decrease of - 45.24%. The downstream operating rate of PP was 36.74%, a month - on - month increase of 30.33% and a year - on - year decrease of - 25.11%. The seasonal off - season has come, and there are no bright spots in the downstream operation of polyolefins [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of PE production enterprises was 579,700 tons, with a month - on - month inventory accumulation of 68.66% and an inventory accumulation of 9.23% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PE traders was 46,900 tons, with a month - on - month inventory accumulation of 97.72%. The inventory of PP production enterprises was 739,900 tons, with a month - on - month inventory accumulation of 89.14% and an inventory accumulation of 8.24% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PP traders was 249,700 tons, with a month - on - month inventory accumulation of 41.31%; the port inventory of PP was 88,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory accumulation of 21.54%. Coal - based enterprises significantly reduced inventory [16]. - Strategy Viewpoints - Forecast for this week: The reference fluctuation range for polyethylene (LL2605) is (6700 - 7000); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6600 - 6900) [17]. - Recommended strategy: Go long on PP2605 - PP2609 (positive spread strategy) [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Multiple figures are provided to show the term structure, price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of PE and PP, including the historical data from 2022 - 2026 [32][45][54]. 3.3 Cost Side - The oil - based cost stopped falling and rebounded. Multiple figures show the prices of various raw materials such as WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, propane, etc., as well as related indicators such as cracking spreads, production capacity utilization rates, and import and export data [76][78][81]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - Raw Material Composition: The raw materials for PE production are mainly oil - based (80.00%), followed by light - hydrocarbon - based (12.00%), coal - based (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%) [128]. - Production Capacity Plan: In 2026, there are many domestic polyethylene production capacity plans, with 500,000 tons already put into production and 5.2 million tons yet to be put into production [133]. - Capacity Utilization and Output: Through figures, it shows the capacity, capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, output, etc. of PE and LLDPE [134][135][140]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export - Inventory: The coal - based inventory of PE rebounded from a low level. The report shows the inventory of various types of PE enterprises and traders through figures [155][156][157]. - Import - Export: It shows the import sources, import volume, import profit, and export volume of LLDPE through figures [159][161][226]. 3.6 Polyethylene Demand Side - Downstream Demand Structure: The downstream demand for LLDPE is mainly for packaging films (51.00%), followed by hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural films, etc. The report also shows the downstream terminal product output forecast and related inventory and operating rate data [166][168][176]. 3.7 Polypropylene Supply Side - Raw Material Composition: The raw materials for PP production are mainly oil - based (53.00%), followed by PDH - based (25.00%), coal - based (18.00%), methanol - based (2.00%), and purchased propylene (2.00%) [188]. - Production Capacity Plan: In 2026, there are many domestic polypropylene production capacity plans, with 0 tons already put into production and 4.37 million tons yet to be put into production [194]. - Capacity Utilization and Output: Through figures, it shows the capacity, capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, output, etc. of PP [194][195][200]. 3.8 Polypropylene Inventory and Import - Export - Inventory: Through figures, it shows the inventory of various types of PP enterprises, traders, and ports [207][210][214]. - Import - Export: It shows the import volume, import profit, export country composition, export volume, and export profit of PP through figures [221][223][226]. 3.9 Polypropylene Demand Side - Downstream Demand Structure: The downstream demand for PP is mainly for drawing (34.00%), followed by high - and low - melt copolymers, injection molding, BOPP, etc. The report also shows the downstream terminal product output forecast and related inventory and operating rate data [231][232][240].