申万宏源策略一周回顾展望：也谈谈“HALO交易”

Group 1 - The report discusses the "HALO trade," indicating that the market is beginning to speculate on changes in industry organization forms due to the AI era. Industries that may be replaced by AI, those with weakened barriers leading to compressed excess profits, and tech leaders that may not continue to succeed are all being reassessed, leading to downward pressure on valuation centers [4][5][6] - The report emphasizes that the current thinking about the endgame of AI is difficult to cover all key factors. The market tends to project tech industry trends to their ultimate capabilities but often fails to consider the gradual changes in productivity, production relations, and political systems that will inevitably occur during AI's advancement [4][6] - Strategic assets that are not easily replaceable are highlighted as core investment clues, especially in the context of great power competition. The inflation logic surrounding strategic resources and energy in the AI era may be further reinforced [5][6] Group 2 - Short-term market characteristics observed post-Spring Festival show that A-shares reflect a weak response to long-term tech narratives but a strong response to visible "new and old economic inflation." This is related to the "HALO trade" and the impact of Federal Reserve easing expectations [8][9] - The report maintains the mid-term projection of a "two-phase upward market," with the spring 2026 market expected to extend the structural market of 2025. Currently, the overall PE valuation of A-shares is at a historical high, indicating an inherent demand for market consolidation [9] - The report identifies short-term inflation directions as a major source of structural advantage, with cyclical products like steel and coal experiencing short-term price increases, although the sustainability of these price hikes is uncertain [10] Group 3 - Mid-term structural recommendations remain unchanged, focusing on growth tech and cyclical alpha. Key areas of interest in growth tech include overseas computing power chains, AI applications, semiconductors, robotics, commercial aerospace, and energy storage [10] - The report suggests that the extension of cyclical alpha investments may involve export or overseas chains, and there is a positive outlook on the revaluation opportunities in non-bank financials [10]