存单走势或制约长债空间

Group 1 - The supply and demand for certificates of deposit (CDs) are relatively friendly, supporting stable CD interest rates. Despite some disturbances in the funding environment since 2026, the overall trend of CD interest rates has remained stable, supported by both supply and demand factors [7][16]. - On the supply side, the central bank has injected a significant amount of medium to long-term liquidity, resulting in a noticeable decline in net financing of bank CDs compared to previous years. Since Q4 2025, the central bank has increased liquidity injections through tools like MLF and reverse repos, while also resuming normalized bond purchases [7][16]. - On the demand side, non-bank institutions have shown strong interest in allocating CDs, particularly insurance and wealth management products. The relative advantage of CDs over repos in a liquidity-rich environment has supported this demand [7][16]. Group 2 - Looking ahead, the downward space for CD interest rates may be limited. The central bank's use of quantity-based monetary policy tools is relatively restrained, making further declines in CD interest rates challenging. The main liquidity tools currently in use have shorter maturities, and the central bank has not employed rate cuts since May 2025 [16][30]. - There is a structural differentiation in CDs, with smaller banks facing greater challenges in reducing CD interest rates. Smaller banks typically have higher funding costs and may face demand constraints due to rating limitations. Regulatory changes may also lead to a contraction in CD demand from smaller banks [16][30]. Group 3 - The difficulty in lowering CD interest rates may significantly restrict the motivation for institutions to purchase bonds, especially as expectations for credit easing policies rise after the March Two Sessions. This could narrow the downward space for long-term bond rates, suggesting a cautious approach towards long-duration assets [30]. - In the medium term, the anticipated introduction of credit easing policies may elevate the central tendency of long-term bond rates, while government debt supply remains under pressure. This indicates potential risks for long-duration assets, while mid to short-term credit bonds may still offer attractive value [30].