工业硅预期供需双增，弱势运行；多晶硅承压运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, but will operate weakly. In the short term, the production increase is limited, and although the demand side is expected to improve marginally, the supply side also has a small incremental expectation in March, presenting a pattern of increasing supply and demand [16]. - Polysilicon is under pressure. The factory inventory remains at a high level with limited destocking. The silicon wafer segment is in a state of low prices and high inventory, and the actual feedback to the silicon material segment is poor. The policy is expected to support the price, and the futures market is expected to operate under pressure [20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Demand - Polysilicon weekly output is 19,000 tons, basically flat month - on - month. DMC output is 41,300 tons, an increase of 600 tons month - on - month. In February, DMC output was 163,700 tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons month - on - month. From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [14]. - Inventory - As of February 27, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 566,600 tons, including 276,100 tons in factory inventory (an increase of 8,800 tons month - on - month), 186,500 tons in market inventory (a decrease of 500 tons month - on - month), and 104,100 tons in registered warehouse receipts inventory [14]. - Price - As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,395 yuan/ton, flat compared with before the holiday. The 553 (non - oxygenated) had a premium of 755 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 8.25%; the 421 had a premium of 405 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 4.60% [15]. - Cost - The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,537.50 yuan/ton, 9,700.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 8,970.00 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [15]. - Supply - The weekly output of industrial silicon was 65,500 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. In January, the output of industrial silicon was 320,100 tons, a decrease of 35,800 tons month - on - month and an increase of 21,400 tons or 7.18% year - on - year [15]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Industrial Silicon - As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,395 yuan/ton, flat compared with before the holiday. The 553 (non - oxygenated) had a premium of 755 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 8.25%; the 421 had a premium of 405 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 4.60% [25]. - Polysilicon - As of February 27, 2026, the average price of N - type re -投料 polysilicon was 52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.25 yuan/kg month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.25 yuan/kg month - on - month. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 46,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,810 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis of the main contract was 5,505 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 10.59% [28]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - Total Output - As of February 27, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 65,500 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. In January, the output of industrial silicon was 320,100 tons, a decrease of 35,800 tons month - on - month and an increase of 21,400 tons or 7.18% year - on - year [33]. - Output in Main Production Areas - Relevant data on the output of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are presented in the form of graphs [35][37][40]. - Production Cost - As of February 27, 2026, the electricity price in the main production areas was flat month - on - month, and the silica price was stable month - on - month. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,537.50 yuan/ton, 9,700.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 8,970.00 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [46][49]. - Visible Inventory - As of February 27, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 566,600 tons, including 276,100 tons in factory inventory (an increase of 8,800 tons month - on - month), 186,500 tons in market inventory (a decrease of 500 tons month - on - month), and 104,100 tons in registered warehouse receipts inventory [52]. 3.4 Polysilicon - Output - As of February 27, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 19,000 tons, basically flat month - on - month. In February, the output of polysilicon was 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons month - on - month; the cumulative output from January to February was 177,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.63% [57]. - Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production - The capacity utilization rate of polysilicon in February was 29.11%, a decrease of 4.95 percentage points month - on - month. It is expected that the output in March will be 84,900 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [60]. - Inventory - As of February 27, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 345,900 tons, and the inventory was 344,000 tons [63]. - Cost and Profit - As of February 27, 2026, the production cost of polysilicon was 43,763.47 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 4,736.53 yuan/ton [66]. - Silicon Wafer - The weekly output of silicon wafers was 11.35GW, a slight increase month - on - month. In January, the output of silicon wafers was 45.93GW, an increase of 2.03GW month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 0.15%. The inventory of silicon wafers was 31.06GW, an increase month - on - month. It is predicted that the output in February will be 45.31GW, basically flat month - on - month [69][72]. - Battery Cell - In January, the output of battery cells was 41.44GW, a decrease of 5.32GW month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 14.01%. The capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic batteries in January was 42.52%, a decrease of 4.59 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 9.31GW, an increase month - on - month. It is expected that the output in February will be 36.7GW, a continued decrease month - on - month [78][81]. - Module - In February, the output of modules was 29.3GW, a decrease of 5.9GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of modules in February was 28.44%, a decrease of 5.73 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 64.5GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13.77%. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 24.5GW, a slight decrease month - on - month. It is expected that the output in March will be 41.39GW, a significant increase month - on - month [86][89]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - Output - As of February 27, 2026, the output of DMC was 41,300 tons, an increase of 600 tons month - on - month. In February, the output of DMC was 163,700 tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons month - on - month [96]. - Price and Profit - As of February 27, 2026, the average price of organic silicon was 13,900 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month. The gross profit of DMC was 2,033.75 yuan/ton [99]. - Inventory - As of February 27, 2026, the inventory of DMC was 46,800 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons month - on - month [102]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - Aluminum Alloy - As of February 27, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 23,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 23,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton month - on - month. From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 55.8%, and the capacity utilization rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.1% [108][111]. - Exports - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [114].