市场传闻引发资金预期与博弈，短期关注价格向上机会

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium to long - term, the report maintains the view that the long - position trend of commodities will continue, but the short - term market may continue the shock and volatility - reduction cycle, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak position among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term. For manganese silicon, its supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but the current price may have already factored in these negative factors. For silicon iron, its supply - demand structure remains basically balanced with some marginal improvements. The key factors influencing the prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron in the future are the direction of the black sector and market sentiment, the cost - push problem caused by manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) of silicon iron due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies. The report also suggests paying close attention to potential restrictions on manganese ore exports and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: After the Spring Festival holiday, the manganese silicon futures price first declined slightly and then rebounded significantly, with a weekly increase of 258 yuan/ton or +4.47%. The silicon iron futures price also followed a similar trend, rising 244 yuan/ton or +4.44% week - on - week [13][15] - Driving Factors: The price movements were mainly driven by market rumors about the increase in South African power costs, the imposition of manganese ore ecological export tariffs (the latter was later disproven), and rumors of energy consumption monitoring, energy consumption dual - control, and "anti - involution" policies, which triggered market capital speculation [13][15] - Technical Analysis and Target Prices: The manganese silicon futures price has entered a bullish offensive pattern, approaching the resistance level of 6080 yuan/ton. If it breaks through, the next target prices are 6200 yuan/ton and 6450 yuan/ton. The silicon iron futures price is approaching the long - term downward trend line. If it breaks free, the next resistance levels are 5900 yuan/ton and 6100 yuan/ton [13][15] - Weekly Key Points Summary - Demand: The weekly output of rebar was 165.1 million tons, a decrease of 5.28 million tons week - on - week. The daily average pig iron production was 233.28 million tons, an increase of 2.79 million tons week - on - week. In January 2026, the cumulative production of magnesium metal was 8.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.02%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative silicon iron exports were 40.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.50% [17] - Spot and Futures Prices: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5750 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SM605) was 6026 yuan/ton, an increase of 256 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was - 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SF605) was 5726 yuan/ton, an increase of 234 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 2.12% [17] - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 547 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was - 635 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, it was - 460 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was - 360 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week; in Qinghai, it was - 897 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [17] - Cost: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia (excluding depreciation) was 6197 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was 6235 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, it was 6210 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [17] - Supply: According to Mysteel data, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.74 million tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons week - on - week. The weekly output of silicon iron was 9.86 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons week - on - week, remaining at a low level compared to the same period [17] - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 63.8 million tons, an increase of 1.24 million tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period. The estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 8.81 million tons, a decrease of 3.49 million tons week - on - week (significantly affected by the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of February), remaining at a low level compared to the same period [18] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Manganese Silicon Basis: As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5750 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SM605) was 6026 yuan/ton, an increase of 256 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was - 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186 yuan/ton week - on - week, at a relatively low level in historical statistics [23] - Silicon Iron Basis: As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract (SF605) was 5726 yuan/ton, an increase of 234 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 2.12%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [26] 3.3 Profit and Cost - Manganese Silicon Production Profit: As of February 27, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation) remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 547 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was - 635 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, it was - 460 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [31] - Manganese Silicon Production Cost - Raw Material Prices: As of February 27, 2026, the price of South African manganese ore was 37 yuan/ton - degree, an increase of 0.2 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week; the price of Australian manganese ore was 42 yuan/ton - degree, remaining stable week - on - week; the price of Gabonese manganese ore was 42.8 yuan/ton - degree, remaining stable week - on - week. The market price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1185 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [32] - Import Volume: In December, the import volume of manganese ore was 3.274 billion tons, an increase of 0.58 billion tons month - on - month and an increase of 0.723 billion tons year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative import volume was 32.842 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.56 billion tons or 12.17% [35] - Port Inventory: As of February 13, 2026, the port inventory of manganese ore continued to decline, reporting 4.301 billion tons, an increase of 0.098 billion tons week - on - week. Among them, the total port inventory of Australian manganese ore was 0.782 billion tons, an increase of 0.056 billion tons week - on - week; the total port inventory of high - grade manganese ore (including Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore) was 1.357 billion tons, an increase of 0.05 billion tons week - on - week [38][41] - Electricity Price and Cost: As of February 27, 2026, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.0225 yuan/kWh week - on - week, while the electricity prices in other regions remained stable week - on - week. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia (excluding depreciation) was 6197 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was 6235 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, it was 6210 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [44] - Silicon Iron Production Profit: As of February 27, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was - 360 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week; in Qinghai, it was - 897 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [47] - Silicon Iron Production Cost - Raw Material Prices: As of February 27, 2026, the price of silica in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week. The price of semi - coke small materials was 750 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [50] - Electricity Price and Cost: As of February 27, 2026, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.0225 yuan/kWh week - on - week, while the electricity prices in other regions remained stable week - on - week. The estimated production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5704 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, it was 5560 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week; in Qinghai, it was 6147 yuan/ton, remaining stable week - on - week [53] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply - Manganese Silicon Total Output: As of February 27, 2026, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.74 million tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons week - on - week. In January 2026, the output of manganese silicon was 85.40 million tons, an increase of 1.05 million tons month - on - month, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.3 million tons or 3.72% [58] - Manganese Silicon Output in Main Production Areas: Not elaborated in detail in terms of specific data changes in the report [59] - Silicon Iron Total Output: As of February 27, 2026, the weekly output of silicon iron was 9.86 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons week - on - week, remaining at a low level compared to the same period. In January 2026, the output of silicon iron was 43.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.71 million tons month - on - month, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.43 million tons or 7.28% [68] - Silicon Iron Output in Main Production Areas: Not elaborated in detail in terms of specific data changes in the report [69] - Demand - HeSteel Tendering: In January 2026, HeSteel Group's tender volume for manganese silicon was 17,000 tons, an increase of 2300 tons month - on - month; the tender price was 5920 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. In February 2026, HeSteel Group's tender volume for 75B silicon iron alloy was 2150 tons, a decrease of 1163 tons month - on - month and an increase of 690 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5760 yuan/ton, remaining stable month - on - month [73] - Manganese Silicon Apparent Consumption and Rebar Output: As of February 27, 2026, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 11.02 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 165.1 million tons, a decrease of 5.28 million tons week - on - week [76] - Pig Iron and Crude Steel Output: As of February 27, 2026, the daily average pig iron production was 233.28 million tons, an increase of 2.79 million tons week - on - week. In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.18 billion tons, a decrease of 1.72 billion tons month - on - month and a decrease of 7.82 billion tons year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative crude steel output was 950 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 41.22 billion tons or 4.16% [78] - Magnesium Metal: In January 2026, the cumulative production of magnesium metal was 8.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.02%. As of February 27, 2026, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton week - on - week [83] - Silicon Iron Exports: From January to December 2025, China's cumulative silicon iron exports were 40.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.79 million tons or 6.50%. As of February 27, 2026, the estimated export profit of silicon iron was - 97 yuan/ton, remaining at a low level compared to the same period [86] 3.5 Inventory - Manganese Silicon Visible Inventory: As of February 27, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 63.8 million tons, an increase of 1.24 million tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 39.83 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons week - on - week. In February, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 18.57 days, an increase of 1.09 days month - on - month [94][97][100] - Silicon Iron Visible Inventory: As of February 27, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 8.81 million tons, a decrease of 3.49 million tons week - on - week (significantly affected by the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of February), remaining at a low level compared to the same period. In February, the average available days of silicon iron in steel mills was 18.72 days, an increase of 1.2 days month - on - month, and steel mills replenished inventory at a low level, with the raw material inventory continuing to rise month - on - month [103][106]