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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - After the Chinese New Year, domestic lithium carbonate inventory was depleted, and downstream demand showed high resilience during the off - season. Third - party research indicated that the production schedule growth rate of downstream industries in March would be more significant than that of salt factories, and the tight spot market situation was expected to continue. The export ban on raw ore and lithium concentrate in Zimbabwe during the week drove bullish sentiment, with the main contract of lithium carbonate once rising above 187,000 yuan. According to Cailian Press, the export ban in Zimbabwe was a phased measure, and it was expected to resume within 1 - 4 weeks. If concentrate exports were liberalized within a month, the substantial impact on domestic lithium salt supply would be limited. After continuous increases, it was necessary to be vigilant against an increase in high - level profit - taking orders due to the fading of sentiment. Future attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm, changes in spot market premiums and discounts, and the atmosphere in the commodity market [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Periodic and Spot Market: On February 27, the morning quote of the Mysteel Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 173,736 yuan, with a weekly increase of 19.62%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 174,100 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 176,040 yuan, with a weekly increase of 15.33% [12]. - Supply: After the festival, the production of lithium salt factories increased. On February 26, SMM reported that the domestic weekly production of lithium carbonate was 21,822 tons, a growth of 8.1% compared with the week before the festival. The domestic lithium carbonate production in January 2026 was 97,900 tons, and it was expected to decrease by 16.3% month - on - month in February. In January 2026, Chile exported 16,950 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 44.82% increase month - on - month and an 11.35% decrease year - on - year; it exported 27,800 tons of lithium sulfate to China [12]. - Demand: According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, the domestic production of new energy vehicles was 1.041 million, a 2.5% year - on - year increase; the sales volume was 945,000, a 0.1% year - on - year increase, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 40.3% of total vehicle sales. The first quarter was a critical window period for "rush - to - export" of batteries, and off - season demand was expected to increase. The decline in material production schedules was narrower than previously expected. According to Zeyan Consulting, the production of lithium iron phosphate in January 2026 was 394,800 tons, a 5% decrease month - on - month [12]. - Inventory: On February 26, the domestic weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was reported at 102,932 tons, a decrease of 2,839 tons (- 2.8%) compared with the previous week. The inventory days of lithium carbonate were approximately 28.2 days. On February 27, the registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 38,461 tons, a 0.8% decrease week - on - week [12]. - Cost: On February 27, the quoted price of SMM's imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,290 - 2,480 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 18.95% [12]. 2. Periodic and Spot Market - On February 27, the MMLC morning quote was 173,736 yuan, up 19.62% weekly; the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 174,100 yuan. The closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 176,040 yuan, up 15.33% weekly [20]. - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market was - 400 yuan (referring to the main contract LC2605), and the net positions of the top ten main seats in the lithium carbonate contract turned long [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,500 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 9,400 yuan [27]. 3. Supply Side - On February 26, the domestic weekly production of lithium carbonate was 21,822 tons, up 8.1% from the week before the festival. In January 2026, domestic lithium carbonate production was 97,900 tons, down 1.3% month - on - month and up 56.7% year - on - year. It was expected to decrease by 16.3% month - on - month in February [32]. - In January, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 60,100 tons, a 1.2% decrease from the previous month and a 76.3% increase year - on - year; the production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite was 12,880 tons, a 3.5% decrease from the previous month and a 2.7% increase year - on - year [35]. - In January, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 3.0% to 15,440 tons; the production of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 9,480 tons, a 5.3% decrease month - on - month [38]. - In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a 8.8% increase month - on - month and a 14.5% decrease year - on - year. In 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was approximately 243,000 tons, a 3.4% increase year - on - year. In December 2025, Chile exported 11,704.02 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 20.3% decrease month - on - month and a 12.4% decrease year - on - year. In January 2026, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports were 22,900 tons, a 24.83% increase month - on - month and a 10.59% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 16,950 tons were exported to China, a 44.82% increase month - on - month and an 11.35% decrease year - on - year. In January 2026, Chile exported 27,800 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 475.29% increase month - on - month and a 1222.90% increase year - on - year [41]. 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominated lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. Future growth in lithium salt consumption would still rely on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application fields had limited and weak growth [45]. - According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, domestic new energy vehicle production was 1.041 million, up 2.5% year - on - year; sales were 945,000, up 0.1% year - on - year, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 40.3% of total vehicle sales [48]. - In January 2026, approximately 289,000 new energy vehicles were sold in Europe, a 20% increase year - on - year. In 2025, approximately 86,000 new energy vehicles were sold in the United States, a 25% decrease year - on - year [51]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in January, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a 16.7% decrease month - on - month and a 55.9% increase year - on - year. In January, the domestic power - battery loading volume was 42.0 GWh, a 57.2% decrease month - on - month and an 8.4% increase year - on - year [54]. - According to Zeyan Consulting, the production of lithium iron phosphate in January 2026 was 394,800 tons, a 5% decrease month - on - month [57]. 5. Inventory - On February 26, the domestic weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 102,932 tons, a decrease of 2,839 tons (- 2.8%) compared with the previous week. The inventory days of lithium carbonate were approximately 28.2 days. On February 27, the registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 38,461 tons, a 0.8% decrease week - on - week [64]. - Driven by the "rush - to - export" demand, the inventory of cathode materials decreased. The inventory of energy - storage batteries reached a new low, and the inventory of power batteries slightly increased during the off - season [67]. 6. Cost Side - On February 27, the quoted price of SMM's imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,290 - 2,480 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 18.95% [75]. - In December, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a 30.2% increase year - on - year and a 7.3% decrease month - on - month. In 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 6.209 million tons, a 9.0% increase year - on - year. In 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import from Africa increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines accelerated, and lithium ore imports were significantly supplemented [78].