资金面延续宽松，债市维持震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, in January, affected by the Spring Festival misalignment factor, the year-on-year CPI was lower than expected, while both the year-on-year and month-on-month PPI improved. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable, the strength of the credit start was weak, and in terms of structure, short-term loans increased year-on-year, while corporate loans and long-term household loans were weak. Overseas, the liquidity in the US has improved, and the market's expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed to the middle of the year. - The central bank conducted 1.525 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations this week, with 2.2524 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase, 300 billion yuan in MLF, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed deposits maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 577.4 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48%. - The latest 10-year treasury bond yield closed at 1.82%, up 2.32 BP week-on-week; the 30-year treasury bond yield closed at 2.29%, up 4.60 BP week-on-week; the latest 10-year US treasury bond yield was 3.97%, down 11.00 BP week-on-week. - In general, the sustainability of the economic recovery momentum remains to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of household income and policy support. The central bank's Q4 2025 monetary policy implementation report shows that it will flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and emphasize the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. The capital market is expected to remain loose. Recently, the allocation power in the bond market has been strong, but the impact of the stock market and inflation expectations on the rhythm still needs to be monitored. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate. [10][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Situation: In January, affected by the Spring Festival misalignment factor, the year-on-year CPI was lower than expected, while both the year-on-year and month-on-month PPI improved. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable, the strength of the credit start was weak, and in terms of structure, short-term loans increased year-on-year, while corporate loans and long-term household loans were weak. Overseas, the liquidity in the US has improved, and the market's expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed to the middle of the year. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 1.525 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations this week, with 2.2524 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase, 300 billion yuan in MLF, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed deposits maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 577.4 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48%. - Interest Rates: The latest 10-year treasury bond yield closed at 1.82%, up 2.32 BP week-on-week; the 30-year treasury bond yield closed at 2.29%, up 4.60 BP week-on-week; the latest 10-year US treasury bond yield was 3.97%, down 11.00 BP week-on-week. - Summary: Fundamentally, inflation recovery still poses potential pressure on the bond market. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable. Overall, the sustainability of the economic recovery momentum remains to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of household income and policy support. The capital market is expected to remain loose. Recently, the allocation power in the bond market has been strong, but the impact of the stock market and inflation expectations on the rhythm still needs to be monitored. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips, with a profit-to-loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of improving credit. [10][12][14] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - T Contract Market Performance: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the T current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the T main contract. - TL Contract Market Performance: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TL current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TL main contract. - TF Contract Market Performance: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TF current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TF main contract. - TS Contract Market Performance: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TS current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TS main contract. - TS and TF Positions: The report presents the closing price and position volume of the TS and TF contracts. - T and TL Positions: The report presents the closing price and position volume of the T and TL contracts. [17][22][24][26][31][36] 3.3. Main Economic Data - Domestic Economy - GDP: In Q3 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. The economic growth in the first three quarters of this year maintained resilience. - PMI: In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the service PMI was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. Overall, both the manufacturing and service sectors declined. - Price Index: In January, the year-on-year CPI increased by 0.2%, the previous value was 0.8%; the year-on-year core CPI increased by 0.8%, the previous value was 1.2%; the year-on-year PPI was -1.4%, the previous value was -1.9%. From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI in January increased by 0.2%, the previous value was 0.2%; the core CPI increased by 0.3%, the previous value was 0.2%; the PPI increased by 0.4%, the previous value was 0.2%. - Export: In December 2025, China's export data was generally stronger than expected. In December, exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.5% year-on-year, the previous value was 5.9%. In December, imports increased by 5.7% year-on-year, the previous value was 1.9%. - Industrial Added Value: In December, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.2%, the previous value was 4.8%, and the industrial production growth rate rebounded. - Social Consumer Goods Retail Sales: In December, the year-on-year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value of 1.3%. The growth rate of retail sales declined due to the high base and diminishing marginal utility of durable goods such as automobiles and household appliances. - Fixed Asset Investment: From January to December, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -3.8%, the previous value was -2.6%; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment was -17.2%, the previous value was -15.9%, and the real estate market continued to adjust; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding power was -2.2%, the previous value was -1.1%; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 0.6%, the previous value was 1.9%, and the growth rate slowed down. - Real Estate: In December, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 587.7 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 20.4%, the previous value was -20.5%; the cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.5989 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.0%, the previous value was -9.6%. The cumulative year-on-year data of the completion end in December decreased by 18.16%, the previous value was -18.06%. The new housing sales data in 30 large and medium-sized cities has been weak recently, and the sustainability of the real estate improvement remains to be observed. [41][47][50][53][56][60][63][66] - Foreign Economy - US Economy: In Q4, the annualized current-price GDP of the US was 3.149 trillion US dollars, with an actual year-on-year growth rate of 2.23% and a month-on-month growth rate of 1.40%. In January, the year-on-year CPI in the US increased by 2.4%, the previous value was 2.7%. In January, the year-on-year core CPI in the US increased by 2.5%, the previous value was 2.6%; the month-on-month increase was 0.4%, the previous value was 0.0%. In December, the order amount of durable goods in the US was 319.6 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 10.00%, the previous value was 12.45%. In January, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 130,000, exceeding the expected increase of 70,000; the unemployment rate was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous value of 4.4%. In January, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 52.6, higher than the expected 48.5 and the previous value of 47.9; the ISM non-manufacturing PMI was 53.8, slightly lower than the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 54.4. - EU Economy: In Q4, the year-on-year GDP growth rate of the EU was 1.5%, and the month-on-month growth rate was 0.3%. In January, the year-on-year CPI in the eurozone increased by 1.7%, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 1.9%; the month-on-month decrease was 0.5%, greater than the expected decrease of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.2%. In January, the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone was 49.4, higher than the expected 49.1 and the previous value of 48.8; the initial value of the service PMI was 51.9, lower than the expected 52.6 and the previous value of 52.4. [69][72][75][78] 3.4. Liquidity - Money Supply: In January, the growth rate of M1 was 4.9%, the previous value was 3.8%; the growth rate of M2 was 9.0%, the previous value was 8.5%. The growth rate of M1 rebounded in January, mainly affected by the base effect and the high growth of corporate and government deposits. - Social Financing Scale: In January, the increment of social financing was 7.22 trillion yuan, compared with 7.05 trillion yuan in the same period last year; the new RMB loans were 4.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion yuan. - MLF and Reverse Repurchase: In January, the balance of MLF was 6.95 trillion yuan, and the net investment of MLF was 700 billion yuan. [83][89] 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates: The report presents the latest market interest rates, including repurchase rates, treasury bond yields, and US treasury bond yields, as well as their daily, weekly, and monthly changes. - Exchange Rates: The report presents the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar index. [92][103]