短期大豆通关受阻，豆粕价格增仓上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to market rumors that the customs has extended the clearance of South American soybeans by 10 - 20 days, the price of soybean meal has increased significantly with increased positions. From a fundamental perspective, the recent improvement in the export sales of US soybeans and the expectation of China's increased procurement of US soybeans have driven up the price of CBOT soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure is increasing, but on the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost increases, and the price of protein meal may be bottoming out [10]. - The protein meal price may be bottoming out based on the fundamental assessment [11]. - The trading strategy suggestions for both unilateral and arbitrage are to wait and see [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information - From February 12th to February 19th, the US exported 410,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 35.65 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.83 million tons. Among them, 80,000 tons were exported to China, and the cumulative export to China in the current year was 10.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.08 million tons [10]. - As of February 21st, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 32.3%, 4.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 4.3 percentage points lower than the five - year average [10]. - As of the week of February 20th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 11.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 million tons; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 5.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons [10]. - In January, the forecast for the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season [10]. - Fundamental Assessment - Valuation indicators include the US soybean 5 - 7 spread, soybean import profit, rapeseed import cost, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread. The overall change of these indicators is not significant, and the soybean import profit has recovered [11]. - Driving factors analysis: The increase in the estimated Brazilian production, the increase in China's procurement of US soybeans, and the reduction of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed are negative factors; the high inventory of domestic pigs and laying hens is a positive factor [11]. - Trading Strategy Suggestions - Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price - The document provides the spot price trends of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu from 2022 to 2026 [21][22]. - Basis of the Main Contract - It shows the basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25]. - Inter - monthly Spread - The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal 5 - 9 months and rapeseed meal 5 - 9 months from 2022 to 2026 are presented [27][28]. - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread - The spreads between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May and soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September from 2022 to 2026 are provided [30][31]. 3.3. Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress - The planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 are shown [36][37][39][40]. - Weather Conditions - The precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared with the same period of the year are presented, along with the weather conditions summary of soybean - producing areas as of February 20th [42][44][45][47]. - US Soybean Export Progress - The current market - year cumulative signing volume, next - year market - year cumulative signing volume, current market - year export volume to China, and next - market - year export volume to China of US soybeans are provided [53][54][56][57][59][60]. - China's Oil Mill Pressing Situation - The soybean and rapeseed pressing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [62][63]. - Brazilian Soybean Export Situation - The monthly export volume and export volume to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025 are presented [65][66]. - Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Shipment Volume to China - The weekly and cumulative shipment volumes of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 are provided [68][69][71][72]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory - The port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [76][77]. - Protein Meal Inventory - The inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are presented [79][80]. - Protein Meal Pressing Profit - The pressing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 are provided [82][83]. 3.5. Demand Side - Protein Meal Demand - The cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 to 2026 are shown [86]. - Breeding Profit - The average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 are presented [88][89].