锡周报：供给扰动带动锡价大幅上涨-20260228

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - This week, the tin price rose significantly due to supply - side disturbances. Although the emerging fields such as AI servers have optimistic demand for tin, the industry is still in the post - holiday resumption transition period, and the real demand has not been effectively reflected. Considering the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is not advisable to blindly chase high. In the short term, the tin price is expected to operate in a wide range at a high level. The reference operating range for domestic main contracts is 370,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47,000 - 55,000 US dollars/ton [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In December 2025, the increment of imported tin concentrates in China was obvious, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The physical quantity of imported tin concentrates was 17,637 tons, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. Imports from different regions had different changes [12] - Supply side: During the Spring Festival, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan decreased and the recovery after the festival was slow. Jiangxi was still affected by the shortage of scrap supply, with tight crude tin supply and low refined tin output. Overall, the operating rate of domestic smelters remained stable [12] - Demand side: After the festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, but the willingness to inquire and place orders was low, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. Transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and the overall market trading was light. The global visible tin inventory increased seasonally. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,570 tons compared with before the festival; LME tin inventory was 7,550 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the same period last month [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the spot price of tin fluctuated with the futures, and the premium and discount remained stable [19] 3. Cost Side - The monthly average domestic tin ore output fluctuated around 6,000 tons. The processing fee of tin concentrates rebounded from a low level. The processing fee of 40 - degree tin ore in Yunnan increased from 7,000 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, reflecting the marginal alleviation of tin ore shortage [24][27] 4. Supply Side - The output of domestic refined tin and recycled tin remained basically stable. In January, the output of domestic refined tin was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; the output of recycled tin was 3,320 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. Affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were at a low level. In December 2025, the import volume of domestic refined tin was 1,547.75 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25% [32][35][41] 5. Demand Side - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales continued to rise, and the global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. In terms of consumer electronics, in December, the output of domestic PC was 31.4 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 348.5 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the output of domestic smartphones was 126.54 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 1.2695 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In the white - goods sector, the sales volume of washing machines increased rapidly, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.8% in the first 12 months. Other products performed relatively average. The cumulative year - on - year increase of air conditioners was 0.7%, that of refrigerators was 1.6%, and that of color TVs decreased by 2.6%. The combined year - on - year growth rate of the four major household appliances decreased by 0.2%. In the tin - consumption fields, the tin consumption in the tinplate field decreased slightly year - on - year, and the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in 2025. In December, the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises remained stable, and the apparent consumption increased slightly month - on - month [46][49][52] 6. Supply - Demand Balance - After the Spring Festival, the global visible tin inventory level increased steadily. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,570 tons compared with the previous Friday [67]