铜周报：地缘局势加大波动风险-20260228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are supported in the short - term, but the risk of volatility has increased. The domestic and foreign spot basis is differentiated, the refined - scrap spread has narrowed slightly, and global visible inventories have continued to increase, with copper valuation being neutral to bearish. In terms of drivers, the US dollar index has weakened slightly, the short - term copper concentrate processing fee has rebounded slightly but remains at a low level, and the global PMI has risen above the boom - bust line, with short - term drivers being bullish [13]. - The operating ranges of copper prices are as follows: the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate between 101,500 - 106,500 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M is expected to operate between 12,800 - 14,000 US dollars/ton [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Demand: Copper prices have rebounded, and post - holiday market transactions have gradually recovered. The operating rates of copper processing enterprises have generally rebounded, but the rebound amplitude is relatively small. The domestic refined - scrap spread has narrowed, the operating rate of recycled copper rods remains at a low level, and the substitution of scrap copper is still limited [11]. - Supply: The spot processing fee of copper concentrates has rebounded slightly but remains at a low level. The processing fee of blister copper has increased month - on - month, and the supply of cold materials is still relatively sufficient. In January 2026, Chile's copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year to 414,000 tons, reaching a multi - year low [12]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.192 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 132,000 tons. Among them, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased by 119,000 tons to 392,000 tons compared with before the holiday, the LME inventory has increased by 12,000 tons to 254,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 546,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area has increased by 4,000 tons. In the spot market, the spot discount in East China has widened to 235 yuan/ton on Friday; the Cash/3M discount in the LME market has narrowed to 49.5 US dollars/ton [12]. - Import and Export: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded and then declined slightly. In December 2025, China's refined copper imports were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Copper prices have oscillated strongly. The Shanghai copper main contract has risen by 3.53% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has risen by 2.28% to 13,296 US dollars/ton [24]. - Spot Prices: Domestic copper prices have rebounded. Due to the large increase in inventory during the Spring Festival, the basis has weakened. On Friday, the spot discount of copper in East China has widened to 260 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has rebounded slightly, and the Cash/3M discount has narrowed, reporting a discount of 49.5 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded and then declined slightly [29]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrates has rebounded slightly to - 50.4 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China has strengthened, which still makes a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [36]. - Import - Export Ratio: The offshore RMB has appreciated, and the spot Shanghai - LME ratio of copper has weakened [39]. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The loss of copper spot imports has widened [42]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.192 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 132,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area is 88,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with before the holiday. The increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory mainly comes from Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu; the number of copper warrants has increased by 93,914 to 290,594 tons compared with last week. The LME inventory has increased, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses, and the European inventory has decreased; the proportion of cancelled warrants has increased slightly [45][48][51]. 3.4 Supply Side - Production: According to SMM research data, in January 2026, China's refined copper production increased by about 1,000 tons month - on - month, higher than expected. It is expected that the production in February will decline month - on - month but maintain high - year - on - year growth. According to NBS data, in December 2025, the refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the cumulative annual production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [55]. - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 21.96%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. The imports of anode copper were 61,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. The imports of refined copper were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. The exports of refined copper were 96,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons. The profit of domestic spot copper feed - processing exports has recovered after a decline. The imports of recycled copper were 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.83% and a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [58][61][64][70][73]. 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption Structure: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power (46%), home appliances (15%), transportation (11%), construction (9%), mechanical electronics (9%), and other (10%) sectors. In China, it is mainly in the construction (26%), equipment (23%), industry (12%), transportation (13%), infrastructure (17%), and other (9%) sectors [77]. - PMI: In January, China's official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the overall manufacturing prosperity declined slightly. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies has recovered simultaneously [80]. - Downstream Industry Output: In December, the year - on - year output of freezers, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of automobiles, washing machines, air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year output of automobiles, air conditioners, household washing machines, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs, and AC motors decreased [83]. - Real Estate Data: In December, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all decreasing year - on - year, but the decline rate slowed down. The national real estate climate index continued to decline in December [85]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: In January, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and it is expected to decline in February; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises remained at a low level, and it is expected to decline in February. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises rebounded slightly in January and is expected to decline in February; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises increased slightly in January and is expected to decline in February. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises continued to rise in January and is expected to decline slightly in February; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises declined in January, and it is estimated to decline in February. The operating rate of copper strip enterprises increased slightly in January and is expected to decline in February; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased slightly in January and is expected to decline slightly in February. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly but remained at a low level. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises recovered slightly; the operating rate of copper strip enterprises rebounded [88][91][94][97][100][103]. - Refined - Scrap Spread: The domestic refined - scrap spread has narrowed compared with last week, reporting 2,689 yuan/ton on Friday [108]. 3.6 Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions have increased by 49,338 to 1,156,996 lots (bilateral), among which the positions of the near - month 2603 contract are 152,922 lots (bilateral) [113]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of February 24, CFTC fund positions remained net long, and the net long ratio increased to 20.8%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds rebounded (as of February 20) [116].