Changjiang Securities·2026-02-28 14:19Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the petrochemical and chemical industry under the dual carbon policy, with a focus on companies with integrated advantages such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and satellite chemical [9][38]. Core Insights - The dual carbon control policy is set to replace energy consumption control as the primary assessment criterion starting in 2026, emphasizing carbon emissions directly rather than total energy consumption [7][27]. - The petrochemical and chemical industry exhibits significant differentiation in carbon emission intensity across various sub-industries and production processes, with a gradient structure from upstream oil and gas to coal chemical [4][31]. - Short-term impacts of carbon costs are expected to be limited, but new policies will restrict new capacity, leading to a revaluation of existing quality assets [9][31]. - In the medium to long term, carbon revenues are anticipated to enhance profits, particularly for low-carbon intensity assets within high-carbon industries [9][31]. Summary by Sections Policy Transition - The transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control marks a significant shift in policy, with the chemical industry contributing 12%-14% of national carbon emissions [7][27]. - The new dual carbon control system will focus on intensity control primarily, with total control as a secondary measure, impacting the development paths of chemical enterprises [16][27]. Industry Impact - The petrochemical and chemical sectors are characterized by numerous sub-industries, each with varying carbon emission profiles. The refining, coal chemical, and chlor-alkali sectors are expected to be most affected by the dual carbon controls [29][31]. - Different production processes lead to significant variations in carbon emission intensity, with coal chemical processes generally exhibiting the highest emissions [31][34]. Company Analysis - Among major companies, CNOOC stands out for its low carbon emission intensity, while other state-owned enterprises like Sinopec and PetroChina have higher total emissions but lower intensity compared to private refiners [38][43]. - The report highlights the carbon emission intensity rankings among major private refiners, indicating a clear hierarchy based on operational efficiency and energy structure [38][43]. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, the report recommends focusing on leading companies with integrated advantages, while in the medium to long term, it suggests monitoring low-carbon intensity assets in high-carbon industries for potential profit growth [9][31].