软商品月报：郑棉震荡上行涨势延续-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) continuing to rise is relatively high. The supply in the new year is tightening, the commercial inventory has turned downward, and the reduction in the comprehensive tariff calculation has boosted exports. However, two major risks should be noted: the implementation of the new US tariff policy may change the global cotton trade pattern, and the continuous increase in Brazilian cotton supply may suppress the upward movement of the outer - market prices, and the large price difference between the inner and outer markets will limit the upward space of Zhengmian. [1][30] - The USDA February supply - demand monthly report has a bearish impact, but the outlook forum has released bullish signals. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, demand to increase, and ending inventory to decline in the new year. The market is waiting for a clear signal from the demand side, and the overall situation is bullish with limited downward space. [2][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, Zhengmian fluctuated slightly and then broke through to the upside. After the Spring Festival, boosted by international market news, it broke through the previous trading range and reached a maximum of 15,665 yuan/ton. [3] - The international cotton market first declined and then rose in February. At the beginning of February, US cotton was weak, reaching a minimum of 62.86 cents/pound. After the USDA outlook forum released a tightening forecast for the new - year international cotton market supply - demand situation and the weak US dollar provided support, US cotton rose to a maximum of 66.38 cents/pound. [3] 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis 3.2.1 Commercial and Industrial Inventory - In January 2026, the domestic cotton inventory showed the characteristics of "commercial de - stocking and industrial restocking", with a more prominent differentiation in the inventory structure. As of February 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, a decrease of 285,000 tons from 5.7887 million tons on January 31. The de - stocking pace in Xinjiang was significantly faster than that in the inland. The industrial inventory increased moderately from 1.001 million tons at the end of January to 1.0292 million tons in the first half of February. [6] 3.2.2 Price Difference between Domestic and International Cotton - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has been widening with a pattern of "strong domestic and weak international". As of February 25, the duty - paid cost of medium - quality imported cotton within the quota (1% tariff) was about 12,782 yuan/ton, 3,547 yuan/ton lower than the price of domestic 3128B cotton. The duty - paid cost of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was about 13,840 yuan/ton, 2,489 yuan/ton lower than domestic cotton, and the price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. The expected decrease in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton, the impact of Brazilian cotton exports on the outer - market, and the strong purchasing intention of domestic textile enterprises after the Spring Festival are the main driving factors. The price difference expansion has opened the import profit window, and China's cotton imports in the 2026/27 season are expected to increase to 1.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.0%. In the short term, the increase in imported cotton arrivals may suppress the upward movement of the inner - market, but in the long - term, the price difference is expected to narrow to within 2,000 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.3 Downstream Market - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work in domestic textile enterprises was in an orderly manner, with the start - up rate showing the characteristics of "leading in Xinjiang, following in East China, and lagging in South China". As of February 20, the start - up rate of textile enterprises was 18.7%, and as of February 13, the start - up rate of weaving enterprises was 14%. The release of downstream demand needs to be verified. Spinning enterprises are still cautious in restocking, and the "peak season" orders in March and April have not been fully realized. The finished product inventory of weaving enterprises has increased, and the inventory of weaving enterprises is at the second - highest level in five years. [13][15] 3.2.4 Tariff Policy - Since January 2026, the US tariff policy on Chinese textile and clothing has improved marginally, with the comprehensive tariff level dropping from 18.2% to 15.7%, covering intermediate products such as pure cotton yarn and grey cloth and household textile products, which directly reduces the export cost of enterprises. In the long run, the improvement of the tariff policy is expected to increase the export amount of cotton textiles in 2026, but factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and the release of production capacity of Southeast Asian competitors may still restrict the recovery of exports. [18] 3.3 International Market Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Report - The USDA February supply - demand report shows that in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by 92,000 tons to 26.096 million tons, consumption decreased by 44,000 tons to 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 136,000 tons to 16.353 million tons. The core change in the supply side is concentrated in China, and the main feature on the demand side is the reduction in consumption in Pakistan. [22] 3.3.2 US Cotton Exports - In the 2025/26 season, the total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0507 million tons, accounting for 79% of the predicted total export volume for the year (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.0358 million tons, accounting for 51% of the total signed volume for the year. The signing volume has declined slightly, with a significant decline in Vietnam's signing, while signing in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan has continued to grow. The overall shipment rhythm is stable. The signing and shipment of Pima cotton have remained stable, and the cumulative signing progress is currently slow, but it is expected to accelerate in the future. [25] 3.3.3 US Trade Policy - Since 2025, the US has shifted its textile and clothing trade policy towards South Asia from high - pressure suppression to targeted concessions and raw - material binding, aiming to reshape the global cotton - textile supply chain centered on US cotton. In February 2026, the US reached tariff agreements with Bangladesh and India, reducing the benchmark tariff rate and setting up a zero - tariff mechanism for using US cotton, which will significantly enhance the export competitiveness of South Asian textiles, lock in the long - term demand for US cotton, and weaken the substitution space of Indian and Brazilian cotton. [29] 3.4 Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - For the domestic market, Zhengmian is likely to continue rising. Operators are advised to make long - term layouts based on the fundamentals, pay attention to the progress of domestic resumption of work, US cotton export sales data, and the implementation of tariff policies. The main operation idea is to buy on dips, with the upper - limit pressure reference at 16,000 yuan/ton. [1][30] - For the international market, although the USDA February supply - demand report is bearish, the outlook forum has released bullish signals. The overall situation is bullish with limited downward space. The operation suggestion is to adopt a bullish trading strategy for Zhengmian. [2][30][31]