基本面压制仍存，郑糖上方空间有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the international market, the lower production estimate in India provides short - term support, but India's domestic supply remains ample and sugar prices are low. Brazil's old - crop production is almost finished, and the sugar - making ratio is a key factor. The raw sugar price may return to around 14 cents per pound due to short - term positive factors [2][19]. - In the domestic market, the fundamental pressure is high. The overall sugar production is in line with expectations, sales in Guangxi are significantly behind, and processed sugar suppresses the market. The estimated sugar imports in January increased year - on - year. Although there is a high expectation of import quota tightening, there is no official confirmation. Zhengzhou sugar may run stronger under policy expectations, but its upside is limited [2][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract reached a maximum of 5338 yuan/ton. Despite being in the traditional off - season, positive expectations for import policies and rising overseas markets helped it break through the 5300 yuan/ton resistance [5]. - In February, the international sugar price first declined and then rebounded. The initial supply pressure pushed the price down to a minimum of 13.34 cents per pound, but the downward - adjusted production estimate in India provided short - term support, and the price rebounded to around 14 cents per pound [5]. 3.2 International Market Analysis 3.2.1 Brazil - As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 60164.4 million tons, a 2.16% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.74%, a 2.6% increase compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar production was 4024 million tons, a 0.86% year - on - year increase [7]. - For the 2026/27 season, although the proportion of cane used for sugar production will decrease, the estimated sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is still expected to reach 4050 million tons, remaining flat compared to the previous year. The market believes that only when the ethanol - to - sugar price stabilizes above 18 cents per pound will there be a significant impact on the decrease of the sugar - making ratio [7]. 3.2.2 India - As of February 15, 2026, India's sugar production was 2250.6 million tons, higher than 1976.5 million tons in the same period last year. The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 season is about 3240 million tons, with about 310 million tons diverted to ethanol production, and the net sugar production is about 2930 million tons (a 12% increase compared to the previous year) [10]. - In Uttar Pradesh, due to variety replacement, the cane yield per unit is lower than the previous estimate, but the sugar production rate has increased year - on - year. In Maharashtra and Karnataka, the sugar production rate is acceptable, but the yield per unit is lower than expected, mainly affected by early cane flowering since January [10]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis 3.3.1 Regional Sales - As of January 31, 2026, Yunnan's sugar sales were relatively stable, with cumulative sugar sales of 53.20 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98 million tons, and a sales rate of 54.06%, basically the same as the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar sales increased significantly year - on - year, and alcohol sales also increased [11]. - In Guangxi, the pressure of both production and sales decline is prominent. The cane crushing volume and sugar production in this season decreased by 309.71 million tons and 78.80 million tons respectively year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 155.06 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83.03 million tons, and the sales rate was only 38.49%, a 10.94 - percentage - point year - on - year decline [11]. 3.3.2 Sugar Imports - The market expects that the sugar import volume in January 2026 will reach about 30 million tons, significantly higher than 6 million tons in the same period last year, and most of it is expected to be within the quota or carried over from December for customs clearance. The import data for January and February will be released together on March 18 [15]. - The market has strong expectations for import policies, with a high demand for quota tightening, but there is no official confirmation [16]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - The report suggests mainly conducting short - term trading of Zhengzhou sugar [3][20].