Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-01 00:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, with specific recommendations for several companies including 晋控煤业, 山煤国际, 潞安环能, 华阳股份, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中广核矿业 [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the contraction in overseas supply is catalyzing domestic coal demand, leading to an expected continuous rise in coal prices. Factors such as supply tightness from Indonesia and Russia, along with increased domestic consumption, are driving this trend. The anticipated price range for coal is projected to be between 750-1000 RMB/ton, with seasonal fluctuations expected [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the improvement in supply-demand dynamics within the coal sector, suggesting that companies with high spot market exposure and improved balance sheets are likely to outperform. It also notes that the coal price is supported by low inventory levels and a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday [9][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 5.7%, outperforming the broader market indices such as the沪深300, which increased by 1.1% [16][19]. - The report indicates that the焦炭 sub-sector experienced the highest weekly gain of 10.7% [19]. 2. Company Performance - Notable performers in the coal industry include 江钨装备, 金瑞矿业, and 云煤能源, with weekly increases of 38.99%, 17.62%, and 14.48% respectively [22][23]. - Conversely, 平煤股份 and 中国神华 had the smallest weekly gains of 1.83% and 1.95% respectively [22][24]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of international supply disruptions, particularly from Russia and Indonesia, which are expected to influence global coal prices significantly [26][34]. - It also notes that domestic coal production has been affected by holiday shutdowns, leading to a decrease in output, which further supports price increases [31][32]. 4. Price Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of coal prices, indicating that prices in key regions such as 山西 have increased compared to previous weeks, with notable rises in various coal grades [45].