3月债市投资策略：长债调整或是机会

Investment Strategy Summary - The report indicates that the long-term bond market experienced a rebound in early February, followed by a phase of adjustment towards the end of the month, primarily due to profit-taking by brokers and funds after the relaxation of real estate policies in Shanghai [1] - The net selling of ultra-long-term bonds (over 20 years) by brokers and funds amounted to 40.3 billion on February 26 and 27, contributing to a total net selling of 97 billion from January 1 to February 27, compared to 51.5 billion during the same period last year [1] - Despite the significant net selling by trading accounts, the rise in bond yields has increased the allocation value of ultra-long bonds, prompting banks to increase their holdings [1] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the central bank's bond purchasing scale has expanded, with a purchase of 100 billion in January, an increase of 50 billion from the previous month, which is expected to improve the supply-demand relationship for government bonds [1] - The report suggests that the investment strategy for the bond market in 2026 should focus on monitoring the scale of central bank bond purchases, the timing of policy interest rate cuts, and when risk appetite may decline [1] Yield Expectations - The report anticipates that the yield on 10-year government bonds may reach a low of 1.75% in Q1 and potentially drop to 1.70% in Q2, with the overall yield expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% throughout 2026 [1] - The report also notes that the current steep yield curve makes it challenging for banks to cover their funding costs with bonds maturing within 5 years, suggesting that extending the duration of bond holdings may be a practical choice [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends taking advantage of trading opportunities in the long-term bond market, especially given the recent appreciation of the RMB and the decline in yields of developed countries' 10-year bonds, which is favorable for the Chinese bond market [1] - It is suggested that the allocation of ultra-long bonds by insurance funds may increase in March, with the yield on 30-year government bonds expected to drop below 2.20% [1]