国信期货苹果月报：冷库陆续复工，行情或宽幅震荡为主-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The apple futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the future, and the recommended operation is to sell high and buy low within the range. This is because the supply of high - quality apples is tight due to the decline in the excellent fruit rate, providing strong support at the bottom, while the demand is restricted, limiting the upward momentum [2][44]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In February 2026, the main contract AP2605 of apple futures showed a strong - running and high - level oscillation. The postponed Spring Festival increased the stocking time, boosting the market during the festival. However, the postponed Spring Festival also narrowed the later sales window, causing the market to fall sharply after the festival. The limited quantity of high - quality apples provided some support and narrowed the decline [7]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Tight Supply of High - quality Apples - As of February 26, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 4.9448 million tons, 308,900 tons lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in the same period in the past seven years. Shandong had about 2.0859 million tons, Shaanxi about 1.2827 million tons, and non - main producing areas about 1.5762 million tons. The proportion of high - quality apples was low, and that of poor - quality apples was high. After the festival, cold - storage in Shandong and Shaanxi resumed packaging, and in Gansu, high - quality apples were sold well before the festival, with a slight price increase [11]. 3.2.2 Cold - storage Resumed Operation after the Festival with Good Sales Speed - As of February 26, 2026, the cold - storage inventory ratio was about 37.33%, 2.45 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From February 12 - 25, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.81 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 32.79%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 42.48%, decreasing by 1.99 percentage points in two weeks, with general transactions and more small - fruit orders from foreign trade. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 33.76%, decreasing by 3.19 percentage points in two weeks, with limited transactions due to the shortage of high - quality apples. In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 31.68%, decreasing by 3.83 percentage points in two weeks, with high purchasing enthusiasm for high - quality apples [17]. 3.2.3 Increase in Fresh Apple Imports in December - China's fresh apple imports are mainly from countries like New Zealand, the United States, and Chile. In December 2025, the import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. Due to the decline in the new - season apple production and quality, the import demand is expected to increase, but the import scale is expected to remain at the current level as the annual import volume accounts for less than 1% of the national production [20]. 3.2.4 Peak Season for Apple Exports with Rising Export Volume - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In December 2025, the export volume was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak seasons for apple exports. It is expected that the export volume in the first quarter of 2026 will increase quarter - on - quarter, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [25]. 3.2.5 Citrus Season Affects Apple Demand - In recent years, the overall fruit harvest and imported fruits have increased market choices. Citrus, which is on the market from November to March, competes with apples during the Spring Festival. The large supply and low price of citrus impact the downstream demand for apples. In February, fruit prices were at a high level, and the large supply of alternative fruits like citrus at low prices affected the terminal consumption demand for apples [27][30]. 3.2.6 Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption - Apple prices have obvious seasonality. The months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by the end of inventory clearance, the reduction of seasonal fruits, and festival stocking. November and December are driven by new - fruit supply and festival effects. The months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is affected by the listing of seasonal fruits and the decline in inventory apple quality. August faces challenges such as the impact of seasonal fruits, the listing of early - maturing apples, and the decline in inventory apple quality. October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples and the similar listing period of pears [36][37][38]. 3.2.7 Price Differentiation of Apples with Different Qualities - As of February 26, 2026, in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong, the price of high - quality apples was stable, with different price ranges for different grades. Due to the decline in production and quality, the price of high - quality apples remained high, while the price of low - quality apples declined. The price difference between large and small fruits may further widen during the cold - storage sales stage, and the far - month futures contracts may remain strong [41]. 3.3 Future Outlook - On the supply side, as of February 26, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 4.9448 million tons, lower than the same period last year, with a low proportion of high - quality apples. On the demand side, the cold - storage inventory ratio was lower than the same period last year, and the de - stocking rate was 32.79%. Different - quality apple markets showed obvious differentiation. The cold - storage resumed operation earlier than usual but later than last year. The shortage of high - quality apples due to the decline in the excellent fruit rate led to high purchasing enthusiasm, while the high proportion of poor - quality apples faced a narrowing sales window. Limited by demand, the upward momentum is limited, but strong support exists at the bottom due to the excellent fruit rate problem. The apple futures are expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low within the range [43][44].