KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-03-01 04:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry is expected to face a soft supply situation throughout 2026, driven by factors such as weight recovery, a decline in breeding sentiment, and production efficiency improvements [3][4][21] - As of February 27, 2026, the average price of live pigs nationwide is 10.84 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.82 CNY/kg, indicating a weakening market post-holiday [3][13] - The average weight of pigs for both groups and individual farmers has increased post-holiday, with group weights rising to 125.19 kg (up 2.57 kg) and individual weights to 140.65 kg (up 0.98 kg) [3][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The industry is observing a decline in breeding sentiment since the last week before the Spring Festival, with breeding stock utilization rates dropping to 19.5% as of February 10, 2026, down 10.8 percentage points from January 30, 2026 [4][15] - The supply of breeding sows is showing a marginal increase, with a total of 1.1505 million sows reported in January 2026, up 0.65% month-on-month [21] Market Performance - From February 23 to February 27, 2026, the agricultural sector outperformed the market by 2.03 percentage points, with the agricultural index rising by 4.01% compared to a 1.98% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [6][26] - Leading stocks include Yasheng Group (+17.46%), New Sai Co. (+12.79%), and Zhongxing Fungi (+12.29%) [6][34] Price Tracking - As of February 27, 2026, the average price of live pigs is 10.87 CNY/kg, down 7.33% from the previous week, while the average price of piglets is 25.42 CNY/kg, down 0.31% [37][38] - The feed-to-pork price ratio stands at 3.25:1, with self-breeding profits at -159.65 CNY per head, a decrease of 61.33% week-on-week [37][38] Key News - The 2026 version of the national standard for pesticide residue limits in food will officially take effect on March 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing food safety regulations [5][36]