GF SECURITIES·2026-03-01 04:46Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a current price of 419.00 HKD and a fair value of 540.45 HKD [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in 2025, with total revenue reaching 29.161 billion HKD, a 30% increase from 2024. This growth was driven by a 32% rise in core business revenue due to increased spot trading volume and stock options trading volume, leading to higher trading and settlement fees [11][36]. - The EBITDA for 2025 was 22.796 billion HKD, up 40% from 2024, with an EBITDA margin of 79%, reflecting a 5 percentage point increase [11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was 17.754 billion HKD, a 36% increase compared to 2024 [11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2024: 22.374 billion HKD - 2025: 29.161 billion HKD (30.3% growth) - 2026E: 31.336 billion HKD (7.5% growth) - 2027E: 34.438 billion HKD (9.9% growth) - 2028E: 37.759 billion HKD (9.6% growth) [5] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024: 13.050 billion HKD - 2025: 17.754 billion HKD (36.05% growth) - 2026E: 19.577 billion HKD (10.27% growth) - 2027E: 21.521 billion HKD (9.93% growth) - 2028E: 23.602 billion HKD (9.67% growth) [5] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: 10.29 HKD - 2025: 14.00 HKD - 2026E: 15.44 HKD - 2027E: 16.97 HKD - 2028E: 18.62 HKD [5] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): - 2024: 40.7x - 2025: 29.9x - 2026E: 27.1x - 2027E: 24.7x - 2028E: 22.5x [5] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2024: 25.0% - 2025: 31.7% - 2026E: 34.3% - 2027E: 35.0% - 2028E: 37.0% [5] Business Segment Performance - Trading and Settlement Fees: - 2025 saw a significant increase in trading fees and settlement fees, with core trading volume reaching 249.8 billion HKD, a 90% increase from 2024. Trading fees grew by 44% and settlement fees by 49% [11][18]. - IPO Market: - The Hong Kong IPO market maintained its global leadership in 2025, with 119 companies listed and total fundraising of 286.9 billion HKD, more than three times that of 2024 [11][36]. - Margin Investment Income: - The net investment income from margin and settlement funds increased to 3.241 billion HKD in 2025, reflecting a growth in the scale of funds due to increased margin requirements [42].