贵金属双周报（2026/02/16-2026/03/01）：关税不确定性与美伊紧张局势共振，贵金属表现强势-20260301

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, and changes in US tariff policies. Gold prices increased by 4.55% to $5222.30 per ounce, while silver prices rose by 16.32% to $89.98 per ounce [5][10] - The report highlights that the "Trump 2.0" and "rate cut trade" will continue to provide strong momentum for gold prices in the medium term, with potential for further increases due to ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [5][6] - Central banks are expected to maintain significant gold purchases, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, an increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month [6] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In the last two weeks, London spot gold rose by 4.55% to $5222.30 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price increased by 3.41% to 1147.90 yuan per gram. London spot silver surged by 16.32% to $89.98 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price rose by 16.36% to 23019 yuan per kilogram [10][15] US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report notes that the US core PCE inflation rate returned to 3%, and GDP growth significantly slowed to an annualized rate of 1.4% for Q4 2025, below all economists' forecasts [5][6] Positioning and Trading Volume - The report indicates an increase in trading volumes for both gold and silver, with Shanghai gold holdings rising by 0.67% to 302,300 contracts and Shanghai silver holdings increasing by 3.91% to 524,700 contracts [10][15] Domestic and International Price Differences - The report states that the gold price difference between domestic and international markets is -30.94 yuan per gram, while the silver price difference is 2011.45 yuan per kilogram [61] Futures Basis Situation - As of the last week, the international gold basis (spot-futures) was -74.10 USD per ounce, a decrease of 5.25 USD from two weeks prior, while the domestic gold basis was -5.42 yuan per gram, down by 3.82 yuan [64]