20260301周报：地缘风险叠加供需偏紧，小金属价格大幅上涨：有色金属-20260301

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market [6] Core Insights - Geopolitical risks are driving strong fluctuations in gold prices, with a focus on long-term investment value in gold due to ongoing uncertainties in global tariff policies and geopolitical situations [2][11] - Industrial metals, particularly aluminum and copper, are experiencing upward price movements driven by macroeconomic factors and post-holiday demand recovery in China [3][14] - Lithium carbonate prices are rising due to supply concerns following export suspensions from Zimbabwe, although downstream demand remains cautious [18][19] - The tungsten market is showing a strong recovery post-holiday, with tight supply conditions supporting prices [20][25] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks are causing strong fluctuations in gold prices, with long-term investment value remaining intact [10] - Industrial Metals: Post-holiday recovery is pushing aluminum prices upward, while copper prices are also on the rise due to optimistic demand forecasts [13][17] - New Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have increased significantly, but downstream purchasing remains cautious [18] - Other Minor Metals: The tungsten market is recovering strongly, with tight supply conditions supporting prices [20] 2. Weekly Review - The non-ferrous index increased by 9.8%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices [26][28] - Notable stock performances include Filihua with a 40.02% increase and Yunnan Geology with a 37.77% increase [4][36] - The valuation of copper and aluminum sectors remains low, indicating potential for future growth [39] 3. Major Events - Macroeconomic indicators show stable performance in the U.S. economy, with a notable increase in non-farm employment [11] - The copper market is experiencing volatility due to macroeconomic factors and inventory assessments, with long-term supply-demand balance remaining intact [48] 4. Non-Ferrous Metal Prices and Inventory - Copper and aluminum prices have shown upward trends, with copper inventories increasing and aluminum inventories decreasing [56] - Global copper inventory stands at 1.2268 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase [56]