GF SECURITIES·2026-03-01 05:46Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that the shipping data for sea coal and actual import volumes are highly correlated, with an expected year-on-year decrease of 5.4% in coal imports for the first two months of the year. The actual sea coal import volume is projected to be 6,190 million tons, with January and February imports at 3,511 million tons and 2,679 million tons, respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 3.1% and 8.3% [2][3][41] - For land coal, the correlation between customs clearance vehicles and Mongolian coal imports is strong, with an expected year-on-year increase of 44% in Mongolian coal imports for the first two months, totaling 1,543 million tons [30][41] - Overall, the total coal import volume for the first two months is estimated at 7,733 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 2%, with January and February imports at 4,491 million tons and 3,242 million tons, respectively [39][41] Summary by Sections Sea Coal - The shipping data and actual import volumes show a high degree of correlation, with a projected year-on-year decrease of 5.4% in sea coal imports for the first two months. The total sea coal shipping volume to China for these months is 5,208 million tons, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year, with notable increases from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia, while the U.S. saw a decrease [2][16][17] Land Coal - The report highlights a strong correlation between customs clearance vehicles and Mongolian coal imports, with a projected year-on-year increase of 44% in Mongolian coal imports for the first two months, totaling 1,543 million tons. The customs clearance vehicles at major ports have increased by 59% year-on-year [26][30] Overall Situation - The report synthesizes high-frequency data to estimate a total coal import volume of 7,733 million tons for the first two months, which is a 2% increase year-on-year. However, February's volume has dropped to a near three-year low, with significant seasonal fluctuations observed [39][41]