HUAXI Securities·2026-03-01 06:52Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have significantly increased risk aversion, leading to a rise in gold prices. The price of COMEX gold increased by 4.59% to $5,296.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver rose by 22.15% to $94.39 per ounce. SHFE gold and silver also saw increases of 3.41% and 16.36%, respectively [1][34] - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend globally is driving central banks and investors to continue purchasing gold, which is expected to benefit gold prices in the long term. The US national debt has surpassed $38.5 trillion, and the projected budget deficit for the 2025 fiscal year is $1.8 trillion [7][24] - Silver prices are expected to rise due to its dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial metal, with strong demand from sectors like AI and clean energy. The supply-demand gap for silver is anticipated to widen in the coming years [8][54] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The recent military actions in the Middle East have led to a surge in gold prices, with significant increases in both COMEX and SHFE markets. The gold-silver ratio has decreased by 14.37% to 56.11, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][34] - The overall precious metals sector is currently in a low valuation phase, presenting a potential opportunity for investment in gold resource stocks, which are expected to see enhanced profit forecasts due to rising gold prices [24][55] Base Metals - Base metals have benefited from improved macroeconomic sentiment, with copper prices rising by 2.82% to $13,296.00 per ton on the LME and 3.53% to 103,920.00 yuan per ton on the SHFE. Aluminum prices also saw increases, while zinc and lead experienced slight declines [10][11] - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with ongoing labor issues in major mining regions. However, demand from emerging industries is expected to provide long-term support for copper prices [11][27] Minor Metals - Magnesium prices have increased by 1.28% to 18,260 yuan per ton, supported by a gradual recovery in downstream demand. However, overall demand remains limited as companies focus on depleting existing inventories [21] - Molybdenum prices have risen due to strong demand for raw materials from smelting enterprises, with domestic prices supported by the closure of import windows [22] - Vanadium prices are expected to remain strong due to tight supply and robust cost support, despite a slower recovery in downstream steel production [23]