Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Ctrip Group (9961) [6][10] Core Insights - The financial performance aligns with expectations, with stable domestic operations and increased resource allocation towards overseas market expansion [2][10] - The revenue growth for Q4 2025 was 20.84%, with adjusted net profit increasing by 14.68% [10] - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitive advantage while expanding internationally, despite regulatory concerns [10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections (in million RMB): - 2024A: 53,377 - 2025A: 62,510 (+19.78%) - 2026E: 69,866 (+11.77%) - 2027E: 81,993 (+17.36%) - 2028E: 94,864 (+15.70%) [4] - Adjusted net profit projections (in million RMB): - 2024A: 18,041 - 2025A: 31,839 (+38.02%) - 2026E: 18,530 (-41.80%) - 2027E: 20,261 (+9.34%) - 2028E: 22,799 (+12.53%) [4] - Adjusted EBITDA projections (in million RMB): - 2024A: 17,070 - 2025A: 18,888 (+10.65%) - 2026E: 20,180 (+6.84%) - 2027E: 23,928 (+18.58%) - 2028E: 27,684 (+15.70%) [4] Market Performance - The current stock price is HKD 411.40, with a market capitalization of HKD 293,552 million [6][7] - The stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 400.40 to HKD 609.00 [7] Strategic Focus - The company is reallocating resources to enhance its international market presence, with a focus on travel and accommodation bookings [10] - The management is controlling costs while increasing marketing expenditures for overseas expansion, resulting in a sales expense ratio of 28.5%, the highest in two years [10]
携程集团-S：稳健经营，加大海外拓展-20260301
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-01 07:20