原木周度报告-20260301

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Port arrivals are decreasing, inventory is at a low level, and spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend [3]. - Medium - term: Supply will increase in February, demand will enter the Spring Festival off - season, and inventory is about to enter the accumulation stage. Log supply is expected to maintain a normal level according to the shipping schedule, while the weak real - estate new construction on the demand side continues to drag down log demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price Trends - For 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong, the price increased from 850 to 860 yuan/cubic meter, a 1.2% increase compared to last week. In Jiangsu, the price remained at 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - For 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong, the price increased from 940 to 950 yuan/cubic meter, a 1.1% increase compared to last week. In Jiangsu, the price remained at 840 yuan/cubic meter [7]. 3.2 Price and Spreads - The report presents the spot prices of different specifications of radiata pine and spruce logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang, as well as the regional price differences [9][10][17]. 3.3 Supply - The report provides the shipping schedule data of New Zealand logs, including the load, departure time, previous port, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival date [19]. 3.4 Demand and Inventory - Inventory: In ports such as Lanshan, Xinminzhou, Jiangdu, and Taicang, the total inventory of some ports decreased. For example, the total inventory of Lanshan Port decreased by 3.60 cubic meters, a 2.9% decrease compared to last week [23]. - Daily Shipment: The total shipment of some ports also changed. For example, the total shipment of Lanshan Port decreased by 0.58 cubic meters, a 49.2% decrease compared to last week [23]. 3.5 Other Price Direct Influencing Factors - Freight: The dry bulk BDI increased by 2.7% compared to last week, the Handysize BHSI increased by 14.1% compared to last week, and the crude oil BDTI increased by 15.8% compared to last week [28]. - Exchange Rate: The USD/CNY decreased by 0.5% compared to last week, and the USD/NZD increased by 0.4% compared to last week [28].