铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20260301

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, the overseas supply of electrolytic aluminum may be affected, and the overseas aluminum ingot pricing is expected to rise. The internal and external price difference tends to be positive, and it is recommended to go long on the aluminum plant's profit, i.e., long AL and short AO [3]. - The short - term micro - demand for electrolytic aluminum is still weak, while the spot price of alumina has a small weekly increase and a small inventory accumulation [4]. - In terms of trading, the price difference, trading volume, and open interest of aluminum and alumina have changed. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has declined [5][19]. - In terms of inventory, the inventories of bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and processed materials have different trends, such as the increase in bauxite port inventory and the significant increase in electrolytic aluminum inventory this week [24][55]. - In terms of production, the production capacity utilization rate of alumina remains stable, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the production of downstream processed materials shows different trends [73][79][82]. - In terms of profit, the profit of alumina in January decreased slightly, the profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the processing profit of downstream products is still at a low level [93][102][103]. - In terms of consumption, the import and export profits and losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have changed, the export of aluminum products has declined slightly, and the consumption absolute volume shows that the commercial housing transaction area is at a low level and the automobile sales volume is flat year - on - year [112][114][117]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Situation Impacted by the Middle East Situation - The escalation of the Middle East situation may lead to the opening of the window period for the supply interruption of overseas commodities. The total electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East accounts for about 9.4% of the global total, and the total alumina production accounts for about 3.2%. It is estimated that the annual export volume affected is 4.6 million tons, and the monthly impact may be about 380,000 tons [3]. - The supply chain of bauxite and alumina, the raw materials of electrolytic aluminum, is fragile. If the transportation channel is restricted, it will affect the production and supply capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East [3]. - If the war lasts for a long time, the overseas aluminum ingot pricing is expected to rise, and the internal and external price difference tends to be positive. It is recommended to go long on the aluminum plant's profit, i.e., long AL and short AO [3]. 2. Micro - demand and Spot Situation - The short - term micro - demand for electrolytic aluminum is still weak. As of February 26, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 261,000 tons to 1.175 million tons compared with before the Spring Festival. The downstream processing profit is at a low level [4]. - The spot price of alumina has a small weekly increase and a small inventory accumulation. The spot prices in different regions are different, and the inventory in different statistical calibers has increased [4]. 3. Trading - end Data - Price Difference: This week, the A00 spot premium and discount weakened, while the alumina spot premium and discount strengthened. The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum is relatively stable [7][10]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts have increased significantly. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has declined [5][13][19]. 4. Inventory Situation - Bauxite: The port inventory and inventory days of bauxite have increased. The inventory of bauxite in alumina enterprises decreased in January. The port shipment volume and sea - floating inventory of Guinea bauxite have increased, while those of Australia have decreased. The outbound and inbound volumes of bauxite have changed [24][29][30]. - Alumina: The total inventory of alumina continues to accumulate. The inventory in the alumina plant and the electrolytic aluminum plant has decreased, while the port inventory and the inventory in transit have increased [47]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: This week, the electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased significantly. According to the seasonal change rule, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory usually reaches the peak in the fifth or sixth week after the Spring Festival and then enters the de - stocking cycle [55]. - Processed Materials: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory of aluminum rods have increased. The raw material and finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets and foils have mostly increased slightly [59][61]. 5. Production Situation - Bauxite: The domestic bauxite supply remains stable. The production of domestic bauxite in February decreased slightly. The production of bauxite in different provinces has different trends [66][69]. - Alumina: The production capacity utilization rate of alumina remains stable. The weekly operating capacity decreased by 800,000 tons, and the production of metallurgical - grade alumina this week was 1.787 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with last week [73]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, but the production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly in January. The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 859,500 tons, a slight increase of 200 tons compared with last week. The proportion of molten aluminum has a seasonal decline [79]. - Downstream Processing: The production of recycled aluminum rods remained flat this week. The production of aluminum rods decreased by 1,900 tons, and the production of aluminum sheets and foils increased by 7,900 tons. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased by 4.2% [82][83]. 6. Profit Situation - Alumina: The profit of alumina decreased slightly in January. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while the profit in Guangxi performed better [93]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, but the complex global macro - economic situation and overseas geopolitical conflicts have increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [102]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods remained flat this week, and the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [103]. 7. Consumption Situation - Import and Export Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have increased. The export of aluminum products decreased slightly in December 2025 [112][114]. - Consumption Absolute Volume: The commercial housing transaction area is at a low level, and the automobile sales volume is flat year - on - year [117].