动力煤产业链周度报告-20260301

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain - Report Date: March 1, 2026 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Industry: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report Core Viewpoints - After the Spring Festival, the thermal coal market started well, with prices continuing the pre - holiday strong trend. The current price increase is mainly boosted by the contraction of imported coal supply. However, in March, the market will gradually enter the traditional consumption off - season, and the support for coal price increases is expected to weaken, with limited sustainability [2]. - In the long - term, the substitution of thermal power by new energy will continue. The demand for coal in the power system will peak and gradually decline during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. The supply side will shift from ensuring supply and increasing production to stabilizing production and prices, and coal prices will run between 600 - 850 yuan/ton in the long - term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data Price - Coal prices are running moderately strong. As of February 27, the price of Yulin 5800 kcal index was 601.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Ordos 5500 kcal index was 538.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Datong 5500 kcal index was 593.0 yuan/ton, up 21.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. At Qinhuangdao Port, the price of 5500 kcal coal was 744.0 yuan/ton, up 27.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of 5000 kcal coal was 666.0 yuan/ton, up 28.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CCI imported 4700 index was reported at 83.5 US dollars/ton, up 5.0 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI imported 3800 index was reported at 67.5 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton week - on - week [5][9]. Overseas Coal Price - The overseas market price is relatively strong [10]. Supply - Domestic Production (Weekly) - After the Spring Festival, coal mines in the production areas gradually resumed work and production. From February 19 to February 25, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three - West region was 69.54%, a decrease of 15.92 percentage points from the previous period. As of February 27, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 81.4% (previous value 72.9%) [13][15]. Supply - Domestic Production (Monthly) - In 2025, the national raw coal output increased by 1.2% year - on - year. In December 2025, the national raw coal output was 43,703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. Shanxi ranked first in production, with a cumulative output of 130,454.5 tons, accounting for 27% of the national cumulative output and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%; Inner Mongolia's cumulative output was 128,639.8 tons, accounting for 26.62% of the national cumulative output and a year - on - year decrease of 1%; Shaanxi's cumulative output was 80,461.7 tons, accounting for 16.65% of the national cumulative output and a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [16][21]. Supply - Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import volume was 58.597 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The high import volume was due to the "rush to export" of overseas suppliers affected by Indonesia's export tariff policy adjustment and the import advantage of overseas coal given by the decline of domestic coal prices. Since 2026, Indonesia's coal exports have remained weak with more policy interferences [22][27]. Inventory - Mine - The inventory at the production areas decreased month - on - month [29]. Inventory - Port - The port inventory is running at a low level. As of February 27, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 22.32 million tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons week - on - week. The average daily port inflow this week was 1.0794 million tons, an increase of 0.1861 million tons month - on - month, and the average daily outflow was 1.068 million tons, an increase of 0.2121 million tons month - on - month [2][35]. Transportation - The port inflow and outflow have increased [37]. Demand - Power Demand - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants has rebounded, but the inventory is relatively high. In the next 10 days (February 28 - March 9), most parts of the country will have an average temperature 1 - 3°C higher than the same period of the year, and the residential electricity demand will enter the off - season. In 2025, the growth rate of the whole - society electricity consumption was 5% [41][48][50]. Demand - Power Production - In 2025, the thermal power generation decreased by 1% year - on - year. The precipitation in the southwest region is relatively low [52][54]. Demand - Non - power - The demand for building materials and metallurgy is weak, while the demand for chemical coal remains high. This week, the blast furnace operating rate was 80.22% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of cement clinker decreased by 6.19 percentage points to 35.29% week - on - week [60].