国泰君安期货·能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20260301

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short fiber (PF): Affected by geopolitical factors, the cost is under upward pressure. In the short term, it is expected to be strong and volatile. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is expected to improve with the resumption of work. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical issues and the sustainability of export orders [7]. - Bottle chips (PR): The cost side is also affected by geopolitical factors, with significant upward risks. In the short term, it is expected to follow the cost and be strong. In the medium term, the joint production cut of bottle chip factories in the first half of the year may end, and attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical issues and the resumption of factory operations [9]. Summary by Directory Short Fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 900 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee is around 950 yuan/ton, which is normal [8]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average start - up load of direct - spun polyester staple fiber has reached 74.4%, and the cotton - type load is 84.4%, with further upward expected [7]. - Demand: Downstream is still in the process of resuming work. The terminal has expectations for export demand. The finished product inventory in the yarn and grey fabric links is neutral, and the raw material inventory is mostly 15 - 20 days. The short - fiber inventory is at a low level, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 12.3 days and the physical inventory at 20.4 days, which is moderately high [7]. Strategy - Unilateral: Hold a small number of long positions in the short term, and then pay attention to the realization of geopolitical issues and strong demand expectations. Go short on a quarterly basis [8]. - Inter - period: Mainly wait and see. After a significant unilateral increase, conduct reverse spreads on the far - month contracts [8]. - Inter - variety: None at present [8]. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 600 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee is 600 yuan/ton, which is relatively high [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory's average start - up is 76.8%. The 500,000 - ton maintenance of Hainan Yisheng will return in the middle of the month. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of 750,000 tons of Sanfangxiang, 1.2 million tons of Huarun, and 250,000 tons of Tenglong around March. The maintenance of Sinopec and Baihong's devices in March may be delayed. The supply is expected to recover rapidly in March [9]. - Demand: During the Spring Festival, downstream factories mostly had holidays and shut - downs. The average start - up of beverage and edible oil factories was around 50%, and most sheet material factories shut down. After the festival, it is expected to gradually resume production. The shutdown situation downstream is less than last year. The overall average inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories before the festival was about 11 days, and the inventory is still controllable after the Spring Festival inventory accumulation [9]. Strategy - Unilateral: Hold a small number of long positions in the short term, and then pay attention to the realization of geopolitical issues and strong demand expectations. Go short on a quarterly basis [9]. - Inter - period: Conduct basis reverse spreads and far - month reverse spreads [9]. - Inter - variety: Go short on the processing fee and go long on PF and short on PR [9]. Market Conditions and Data Price and Spread - Bottle chips: The spot price rose first and then fell, with good trading sentiment, reaching 6310 - 6580 yuan/ton on Friday; the average FOB price was 840 - 865 US dollars/ton. The basis has been repaired, and the inter - month structure has gradually flattened to a slightly backwardation structure [18][16]. - Short fiber: The basis has been generally repaired, and the inter - month structure is in contango, with the near - month contracts gradually flattening [86]. Production and Start - up - Bottle chips: The production capacity base was adjusted to 21.47 million tons/year in January 2026. This week, the bottle chip load reached 76.8% (calculated based on 21.47 million tons) [24]. - Short fiber: The short - fiber load is 74.4%, and the cotton - type load is 84.4%. Many factories are expected to resume production quickly after the Spring Festival [97]. Inventory - Bottle chips: After the Spring Festival inventory accumulation, the inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories has reached more than 16 days (CCF caliber) [40]. - Short fiber: The polyester inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival is generally acceptable [98]. Export - Bottle chips: In December 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 702,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. From January to December 2025, the total export volume was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.1% [73]. - Polyester: In December 2025, the polyester export increased year - on - year, with a differentiated month - on - month change [103]. Downstream Demand Short Fiber - The downstream polyester yarn is in the process of rapid resumption of production, and the weaving start - up rate is also gradually increasing. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is generally neutral, and the yarn raw material inventory is not high [112][114]. Bottle Chips - The beverage industry's start - up rate has declined slightly, and the edible oil industry has entered the year - end stocking season. The demand for sheet materials is neutrally supported [49][58][62].