铁矿石周度报告-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market has a low valuation and strong expectations, and the ore price is expected to rebound slightly. The iron ore supply and demand are loose, driving the 05 contract to fall close to the cost support of $90 per ton. Further decline requires the falsification of steel demand, which has not occurred yet. The "Shanghai Seven Measures" have boosted the real - estate expectations, and with the approaching of the "Two Sessions", the low - valuation combined with policy drive is expected to lead to a slight rebound in ore prices [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Spreads - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 751 (+7) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 750.5 (+10) yuan/ton. The basis of the 05 contract was 32 (-2) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread was 19.5 (+3.5) yuan/ton [9] - In the table of Rizhao Port imported ore prices (wet - basis tax - included) and iron concentrate powder market prices (dry - basis tax - included), the prices of various ores have different changes compared with last week. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 26 yuan/ton, while the price of Tangshan special iron concentrate powder decreased by 13 yuan/ton [11] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply - Supply maintains a high level, with the year - on - year difference significantly higher than last year. Global shipments this week were 3320.90 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2152.40 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [4][14] - Both mainstream and non - mainstream mines' supplies are at a high level. The shipments of the four major mines and non - mainstream mines are all showing certain trends, and the cumulative shipments of each mine have different year - on - year changes [18] - The four major mines maintain normal shipping levels, and the shipping volumes of Rio Tinto, BHP, FMG, and Vale all have their own seasonal characteristics [20] - Domestic ore production shows a seasonal decline. The daily average output of domestic mines and the daily average output of iron concentrate powder in different regions have different trends [30] 3.3 Iron Ore Demand - The demand expectation is not good. Steel mill profits are at a low level, the resumption of hot metal production is slow, and the demand expectation is poor. The restocking demand has been traded [32][35] - The demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The port spot trading volume, 45 - port dredging volume, and forward trading volume all show certain trends [36] - There are differences in varieties. The price differences between different grades of ores (such as 65 - 62, 62 - 58, etc.) and different types of ores (high - grade and medium - grade, medium - grade and low - grade, etc.) have different trends [41] - Scrap steel has a substitution effect. The arrival, daily consumption, and inventory of scrap steel in 255 steel mills, as well as the price difference between scrap steel and hot metal, all show certain trends [44] 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - Against the background of weak demand expectations, it is expected that steel mills will not over - restock. The 45 - port inventory, steel mill imported ore total inventory, port trade ore inventory, and port non - trade ore inventory all have their own seasonal trends [46] - Australian ore has obvious inventory accumulation. The inventories of different types of ores (coarse powder, lump ore, concentrate powder, pellet) and ores from different regions (Australia, Brazil) in the 45 ports all show certain trends [49] 3.5 Iron Ore Cost - Oil prices have risen, and freight rates have increased. The BCI, BDI, West Australia - Qingdao, and Tubarão - Qingdao sea freight rates all show certain trends [52]