不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移：镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, the reality of Indonesian mines is catching up, and speculative attributes should be watched out for in March. The current high inventory of nickel may limit the price elasticity, but the expected shortage of mines is gradually becoming a reality. In March, the tight supply situation of mines is unlikely to ease significantly. The price of Indonesian nickel mines has risen significantly. The short - term marginal cost is the integrated pyrometallurgical path, and it is advisable to try long positions at low levels in March. In the medium - to - long term, it is necessary to track whether Indonesia increases the quota and whether the supply elasticity of the Philippines is released as expected [1]. - For stainless steel, the contradiction at the mine end has increased marginally, and the cost support has shifted upward. The speculative attributes of Shanghai Nickel in the mine - end game also drive stainless steel. In March, the mine - end contradiction may still ferment, and it is advisable to try long positions at low levels within the range, while the fundamentals mainly limit the elasticity [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Forecast - Shanghai Nickel: The speculative attributes of the market are dominant, and the open interest is still increasing at a high level. The current high inventory of nickel may limit price elasticity. The expected shortage of mines is becoming a reality. The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia has increased by $23 year - on - year and $14 month - on - month in February to $68. The integrated pyrometallurgical cash cost has risen to 130,000 yuan/ton. It is advisable to try long positions lightly at low levels in March, and track two key points in the medium - to - long term [1]. - Stainless Steel: The contradiction at the mine end drives up the cost of ferronickel, and the cost support for stainless steel has shifted upward. In March, the mine - end contradiction may still ferment, and the speculative funds will support the market. The supply - demand contradiction in the stainless steel segment is not significant, and the high production schedule in March faces challenges in consumption verification. It is advisable to try long positions lightly at low levels within the range [2]. 3.2 Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: On February 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,616 tons to 76,619 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 888 tons to 287,976 tons [3]. - New Energy: On February 27, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed to 5, 7, and 7 days respectively compared with the previous month. The precursor inventory increased by 0.5 to 13.6 days month - on - month, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.5 to 7.5 days month - on - month [4]. - Ferronickel - Stainless Steel: On February 27, the full - industry chain inventory of SMM ferronickel increased by 9% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons. In January, the stainless steel factory inventory of SMM was 1.5 million tons. On February 26, the stainless steel social inventory was 1.1727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.57% [4]. 3.3 Market News - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [5]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons. PT Weda Bay Nickel's production and sales quota has been cut by 70% compared with 2025 [6][8]. - Philippine miners said on February 12 that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [7]. - A landslide occurred in a tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia on February 18, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [7]. - Sherritt International Corporation has scaled back the operations of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [7]. - The Indonesian forest area management working group has imposed sanctions on four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province [8]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices of various products in the industrial chain such as electrolytic nickel, ferronickel, red clay nickel ore, stainless steel, and nickel sulfate [10].