煤焦周度观点-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke market is in a wide - range oscillation due to warehouse - receipt disturbances and the fermentation of energy attributes. After the Spring Festival, the futures decline may lead the spot, mainly through the way of repairing the basis. It is recommended that investors try short - selling on rallies [3][6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Views - Supply: During the Spring Festival, most domestic coal mines are shut down for holidays, resulting in a significant tightening of supply. This week, the sample coal mine's raw coal and clean coal production decreased week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate dropped. However, state - owned and private coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the overall supply is expected to recover quickly. In terms of imports, the average daily customs clearance at Mandula Port decreased compared with the pre - holiday period, and the trade atmosphere at the port is cold. The port prices of main coking coal and gas raw coal are basically stable week - on - week [3] - Demand: The market trading activity has improved compared with the previous period, and the online auction non - delivery rate has declined from a high level, but the overall trading is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and the market sentiment is generally wait - and - see [4] - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal at various links decreased by 872,000 tons week - on - week. Coking and steel enterprises continued to reduce inventory. The pit - mouth inventory increased by 251,000 tons, while independent coking and steel - mill coking enterprises continued to reduce their inventories by 802,000 tons and 279,000 tons respectively [5] - Viewpoint Summary: After the Chinese New Year, the futures decline may lead the spot, and the main reasons are as follows: First, the spot price depends on the resumption of production of steel mills, and the hot - metal output is expected to gradually rise to 2.33 million tons in February and March. Second, the domestic supply may be difficult to release in the first half of this year, but the overall supply contradiction is not obvious under the background of high customs clearance of Mongolian coal. Third, the pressure on the futures market is more significant. It is recommended that investors try short - selling on rallies [6] 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - Supply: FW raw coal production was 6.9637 million tons (- 1.4405 million tons), FW clean coal production was 3.4955 million tons (- 0.7435 million tons), the average daily output of independent coking plants was 64,300 tons (+ 500 tons), and the average daily output of steel - mill coking enterprises was 47,100 tons (- 100 tons) [8] - Demand: The hot - metal output was 2.3328 million tons (+ 27,900 tons) [8] - Inventory: The MS total inventory of coking coal decreased by 872,000 tons, and the MS total inventory of coke decreased by 81,000 tons. The inventory of mines, independent coking plants, steel mills, and ports changed to varying degrees [8] - Profit: The profit of commercial coal was 459 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan/ton), and the average profit of coking enterprises was 48 yuan/ton (+ 6 yuan/ton) [8] - Warehouse Receipt: The warehouse receipt of Meng 5 in Tangshan was 1,148 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke at the port was 1,755 yuan/ton [8] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - Supply - Weekly: The data shows the production and capacity utilization rate of 523 sample mines, including raw coal production, clean coal production, etc., from 2022 to 2026 [10] - Supply - Monthly: The data presents the monthly production volume of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal from 2019 to 2025 [12] - Supply - Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance: The data displays the customs - clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke Ports from 2021 to 2026, as well as the total customs - clearance volume of the three ports [14][16][17][19] - Inventory - Pit - Mouth: This week, the raw - coal inventory of sample coal mines increased by 51,000 tons to 1.7448 million tons week - on - week, while the clean - coal inventory decreased by 31,100 tons to 1.2102 million tons [24] - Inventory - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 2.7197 million tons, an increase of 135,600 tons week - on - week [26] - Inventory - Coking Plant: The data shows the inventory and average available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises from 2019 to 2026, including overall and regional data [29][31] - Inventory - Coking Plant - Available Days by Capacity: The inventory available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants are presented, including overall and different - capacity - level data from 2019 to 2026 [33] - Inventory - Steel Mill: The data shows the inventory and inventory available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and steel - mill coking plants from 2019 to 2026, including overall and regional data [35] 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant: The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is presented, including overall, different - capacity - level, and regional data [37][40] - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel - mill coking enterprises from 2019 to 2026 is shown [47] - Supply - Output - Coking Plant: The daily output of coke in independent coking enterprises from 2019 to 2026 is presented, including overall and 230 - plant data [49] - Supply - Output - Steel Mill: The daily output of coke in 247 steel - mill coking enterprises from 2019 to 2026 is shown [51] - Inventory - Coking Plant: The inventory of coke in independent coking enterprises from 2019 to 2026 is presented, including overall and 230 - plant data [52] - Inventory - Steel Mill: The inventory and average available days of coke in 247 steel - mill coking plants from 2019 to 2026 are shown, including overall and regional data [53][60] - Inventory - Full - Sample Summary: The total inventory of coke from 2019 to 2026 is presented [62] - Supply and Demand: The supply - demand difference, daily supply, and daily demand of coke, as well as the daily output of hot - metal in 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2026, are shown [64] - Profit: The disk profit of coke per ton and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises are presented [67] 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Coking Coal Futures: The futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2605 and coking coal 2609 from February 12 to February 27, 2026, are presented, as well as the futures closing price of the coking coal index [70] - Coke Futures: The futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2605 and coke 2609 from February 12 to February 27, 2026, are presented, as well as the futures closing price of the coke index [73] - Coal and Coke Monthly Spread: The monthly spreads of coking coal and coke from 2019 to 2026 are presented [77][79] - Coal and Coke Spot: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and metallurgical coke are presented [83] - Coal and Coke Basis: The basis of coking coal 2605, coking coal 2609, coke 2605, and coke 2609 are presented [85]