多晶硅：关注市场反内卷情绪：工业硅：上游复产，关注市场情绪扰动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the upstream resumption rhythm. Although the supply decreased marginally due to factory production cuts, there is an expectation of resumption in mid - early March, which will bring supply increments. The overall downstream procurement of industrial silicon remains stable, and considering the anti - involution trend, the downside space of the disk is limited. It is recommended to look for buying points at low levels, with the expected disk range next week being 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton [6][7] - For polysilicon, focus on the spot price. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply is shrinking due to the dry season and high inventory, and the demand will decline after the end of the export rush. The price will decline in the early stage of destocking, but the bottom of the disk is supported by the anti - involution policy. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered. The expected disk range next week is 45000 - 51000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from January 30, 2026, to February 27, 2026, including different grades such as Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [10] 3.2工业硅供给端——冶炼端、原料端 - In terms of inventory, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.18 million tons this week, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.48 million tons. Attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [3][12] - Regarding production, the market is concerned about the resumption rhythm of upstream silicon plants in mid - early March. The开工 rate increased slightly this week. In the southwest region, it has entered the dry season, and the cost is 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton (converted to the disk). In Xinjiang, some factories are expected to resume production of 15 furnaces in mid - early March, which will significantly increase the supply [3] 3.3工业硅消费端——下游多晶硅 - In terms of price, the polysilicon spot price may be loose under high - inventory pressure. The disk was weakly volatile this week, closing at 46495 yuan/ton [2] - Regarding supply, the weekly output decreased this week. Silicon material manufacturers reduced production passively to relieve high - inventory pressure. The current factory inventory is about 340,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption [4] - In terms of demand, the silicon wafer production increased week - on - week. However, the continuous decline in silicon wafer prices will affect the psychological purchase price of silicon materials. After mid - early March, the demand is expected to decline [4][5] 3.4工业硅消费端——下游有机硅 - In terms of price, the average price of domestic DMC has been fluctuating. - Regarding production, the weekly production of organic silicon increased slightly this week, and some factories plan to resume normal production. The inventory of organic silicon has increased, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of post - festival demand recovery [3] 3.5工业硅消费端——下游铝合金 - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work of aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers is limited, with few inquiries and purchases. The demand market increases slowly, and it is expected that rigid - demand orders will be released after the Lantern Festival. The overseas demand in the export market has not improved [3]