螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告-20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real estate expectation has improved, leading to a slight increase in steel prices [3]. - After the Spring Festival, the black - plate sector first declined and then rose. The decline was due to the negative feedback trading caused by weak demand and high inventory, along with weak raw material demand and speculative restocking, resulting in weak cost support. The "Shanghai Seven - Point Policy" released on February 25th optimized purchase restrictions, provident fund loans, and property tax, which stimulated the real estate expectation to improve. The low - valued steel market was sensitive to the favorable policy, and a mid - term rebound might be expected [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Steel Market General Data - Supply and Demand: In the week of February 27, 2026, iron water supply was 233.3 tons, waste steel supply was 14.6 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.1 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 36.4 tons), and waste steel demand was 30.9 tons. The supply of rebar was 165.1 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 41.4 tons), and the demand was 80.5 tons. The supply of hot - rolled coils was 309.6 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5 tons), and the demand was 291.3 tons [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of waste steel was 564.8 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 92.4 tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.7 tons), the inventory of rebar was 800.6 tons (a week - on - week increase of 84.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 62.8 tons), and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 452.2 tons (a week - on - week increase of 18.3 tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.8 tons) [4]. - Price and Profit: The spot price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract base difference was 143 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, the spot profit was 146 yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 169 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils was 3230 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract base difference was 15 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was - 18 yuan/ton, the spot profit was 3 yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 167 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2. Rebar Fundamental Data - Rebar Basis and Spread: The demand is gradually entering the peak season, and attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3210 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price was 3057 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract base difference was 143 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 33 yuan/ton [14][18]. - Rebar Demand: The second - hand housing transactions remained at a high level, indicating the existence of rigid demand, but the new - house transactions were at a low level, reflecting weak market confidence. The land transaction area also remained at a low level. It is in the traditional off - season, and the demand is at a low level [19][23]. - MS Weekly Data: The supply and demand of rebar were both weak, and the inventory was in a healthy state. The long - and short - process supply and inventory data showed different trends [27][28]. - Rebar Production Profit: Due to the decline in coking coal prices, the disk profit expanded. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 146 yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 169 yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 21 yuan/ton [30][34]. 3.3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - Hot - Rolled Coil Basis and Spread: The demand is gradually entering the peak season, and attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3230 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract futures price was 3215 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract base difference was 15 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 18 yuan/ton [36][40]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Demand: It is in the traditional off - season, and the demand has declined. However, the profit window for exports has opened [42][43]. - MS Weekly Data: The hot - rolled coil maintained a low production level, and the inventory level was slightly high [45]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit: Due to the decline in coking coal prices, the disk profit expanded. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 3 yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 167 yuan/ton [48][51]. 3.4. Variety Regional Differences - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coils, hot - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates, including the price differences between different regions such as Hangzhou - Beijing, Shanghai - Tianjin, etc. [58][59] 3.5. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presents the seasonal data of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate total inventory, production, and apparent consumption [65][66] 3.6. Small - Variety Steel Inventory - The report shows the inventory data of small - variety steels such as strip steel, galvanized coils, and color - coated coils [68][69]