棉花：稳步上涨20260301

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures showed a mixed trend this week, rising first and then falling, with a doji on the weekly chart. The lack of new drivers and poor US cotton weekly export data led to the decline. The domestic cotton futures rose significantly after the long holiday, mainly driven by technical buying. Although the spot trading was light due to the incomplete resumption of work in downstream textile enterprises and sufficient raw material inventory in yarn mills before the festival, the demand and price of cotton are still expected to be optimistic based on the changes in commercial inventory and industry sentiment. The current factors limiting the rise of cotton futures are the lack of new drivers and concerns about increased cotton and cotton yarn imports due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a relatively strong trend, and attention should be paid to the actual demand for cotton spot and the planting situation of new crops from March to April [1][5][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: The opening price was 65.50, the highest price was 66.38, the lowest price was 64.99, the closing price was 65.56, with a change of 0.01 and a change rate of 0.02%. The trading volume was 152,839 lots, a decrease of 4,802 lots, and the open interest was 168,188 lots, a decrease of 7,470 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: The opening price was 14,875, the highest price was 15,665, the lowest price was 14,835, the closing price was 15,395, with a change of 655 and a change rate of 4.44%. The trading volume was 2,373,333 lots, an increase of 1,101,808 lots, and the open interest was 837,980 lots, an increase of 171,049 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract: The opening price was 20,585, the highest price was 21,555, the lowest price was 20,585, the closing price was 21,245, with a change of 715 and a change rate of 3.48%. The trading volume was 55,788 lots, an increase of 13,902 lots, and the open interest was 14,494 lots, an increase of 3,847 lots [4] 3.2基本面 3.2.1国际棉花情况 - ICE cotton: It rose first and then fell this week, with a doji on the weekly chart. The rise at the beginning of the week was influenced by the previous Friday's upward trend and the sharp rise of Chinese cotton futures, but the decline on Thursday was due to the pullback of Chinese cotton futures and poor US cotton weekly export data [5] - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending February 19, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 46% decrease from the previous week and a 12% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 6,700 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 43,800 tons, a 12% increase from the previous week but a 10% decrease from the four - week average. The total signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0507 million tons, accounting for 79% of the annual forecast total export volume (2.61 million tons), and the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.0358 million tons, accounting for 51% of the annual total signing volume [5] - Other cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: From August to December, cotton imports increased significantly year - on - year under the tax - reduction policy. As of now this quarter, the Cotton Corporation of India has purchased about 4.91 million tons of seed cotton, equivalent to about 1.72 million tons of lint cotton. In December, the raw cotton import volume was 259,000 tons, a 53% increase from November and more than three times the import volume of the same period last year. The raw cotton export volume in December was 24,000 tons, a 13% decrease from the previous month and a 31% decrease from the same period last year. The total raw cotton export volume in the first five months of this year was 113,000 tons. The yarn export volume in December was 101,000 tons, a 12% increase from the previous month and a 5% increase from the same period in 2024. The total yarn export volume in the first five months of this production season was 454,000 tons. The textile export value in December was $1.94 billion, a 12% increase from the previous month but a 3% decrease from the same period last year. The total textile export value since April 2025 was $16.07 billion, a 1.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [6] - Brazil: CONAB continued to slightly lower the forecast of Brazil's cotton production in 2026. As of the week ending February 20, the sowing progress in Mato Grosso state reached 99.5% of the expected total area, the same as last year. About 68% of the crops were sown within the ideal window period, about 14 percentage points higher than the previous sowing season. As of February 19, the national sowing progress was basically the same as that in Mato Grosso state, reaching 98.6% of the planned area [7] - Bangladesh: It is waiting for the talks with the US in early March. High inflation, energy supply problems, and the banking dilemma are still affecting textile enterprises and producers. The market expects a more stable policy environment under the new government to improve the current situation [9] - Pakistan: The demand for cotton imports is stable. As the local cotton supply decreases, some textile enterprises with raw material shortages have to purchase from the international market. Recently, the demand for local yarn has improved, but due to the increase in raw material replenishment costs, textile enterprises are cautious about shipping, and downstream manufacturers are also cautious about price increases. With the return of Chinese buyers after the Spring Festival, the export market has shown some improvement [9] - Southeast Asian textile industry chain startup situation: As of the week ending February 27, the startup rate of textile enterprises in India was 69.5%, the same as last week and in February, and the average monthly startup rate in January was 68.18%. The startup rate of textile enterprises in Vietnam was 68.5% this week, up from 60% last week, and the average monthly startup rate in February was 65.67%, and it was 63.78% in January. The startup rate of textile enterprises in Pakistan was 69.5% this week, the same as last week and in February, and the average monthly startup rate in January was 66.82% [10] 3.2.2国内棉花情况 - Cotton price and trading: In the week ending February 27, the prices of cotton futures and spot increased significantly and then slightly declined. The overall trading of cotton spot was average, mainly in one - price transactions, mostly by traders. The spot point - price trading of cotton was light. Before the festival, textile enterprises purchased a large amount of cotton raw materials, so they are mainly in a wait - and - see mode after the festival. The one - price of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 increased from around 16,200 to around 16,700 - 16,750. The low - basis of cotton spot decreased compared with before the festival, and some high - basis decreased by about 30 - 40 yuan/ton after the rise of Zhengzhou cotton, and many bases remained stable [11] - Cotton warehouse receipt situation: As of February 27, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 11,172, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 1,244, totaling 12,416, equivalent to 521,472 tons. Among them, there were 252 registered warehouse receipts of domestic cotton and 10,920 of Xinjiang cotton (including 1,620 in northern Xinjiang warehouses, 1,263 in southern Xinjiang warehouses, and 8,037 in inland warehouses) [11] - Downstream situation: The pure - cotton yarn market has not fully recovered, mainly for restocking and fulfilling previous orders. Affected by Zhengzhou cotton, the price of pure - cotton yarn increased, and the trading center shifted up by about 200 - 500. The trading of low - count yarn and air - jet spun yarn was light, while the trading of 40 - count and above yarn recovered relatively quickly. The inventory increased due to the incomplete recovery of logistics, but new orders are gradually increasing, and it is expected that inventory will decrease in the future. The startup rate in Xinjiang remained high, and inland textile enterprises are gradually resuming work, with the startup rate gradually rising. The immediate cash flow of textile enterprises is relatively poor. The theoretical immediate cash flow of Xinjiang textile enterprises is about 800 yuan/ton, and that of inland textile enterprises is about - 850 yuan/ton, but the actual cash - flow loss of inland textile enterprises is about - 100 yuan/ton due to sufficient cotton reserves before the festival. The full - cotton grey fabric market is mainly in the process of resuming work, and the trading has not fully started. The current startup rate is about 52.3%. The fabric mills are mainly producing and delivering pre - festival orders, and it is expected that the market trading will increase after the Lantern Festival. The prices have been adjusted up by about 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter, but there are few inquiries from downstream and few deals [12] 3.3操作建议 - ICE cotton futures are still in a low - level oscillating trend due to the lack of upward drivers. Attention should be paid to the US cotton weekly export data and the new crops of Brazilian and US cotton. Domestic cotton futures rose significantly after the long holiday, mainly driven by technical buying. Due to the incomplete resumption of work in downstream textile enterprises and sufficient raw material inventory in yarn mills before the festival, the spot trading is light. Attention should be paid to the actual trading situation of cotton spot in the next few weeks. Based on the changes in commercial inventory and industry sentiment, the demand and price of cotton are still expected to be optimistic. The current factors limiting the rise of cotton futures are the lack of new drivers and concerns about increased cotton and cotton yarn imports due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a relatively strong trend, and attention should be paid to the actual demand for cotton spot and the planting situation of new crops from March to April [17]