Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-01 07:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies, highlighting strong potential for growth in precious metals and industrial metals due to geopolitical tensions and market dynamics [2][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent military conflict between the US and Iran has heightened risk aversion, positively impacting gold prices. The long-term outlook remains bullish for gold and silver due to central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [2][4]. - Industrial metal prices are expected to experience fluctuations in the short term, influenced by supply chain dynamics and post-holiday recovery in demand. The report notes that the aluminum market is stabilizing, while copper prices are under pressure due to increased inventories and slow recovery in domestic demand [2][4][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The report indicates a significant increase in the SW Nonferrous Index, which rose by 9.77% during the reporting period [8]. - Key companies in the nonferrous metals sector are recommended for investment, including Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, all of which are expected to benefit from the current market conditions [2][4]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are projected to stabilize around 23,000-24,000 RMB/ton, with LME aluminum expected to trade between 3,080-3,180 USD/ton [29][30]. - Copper prices are anticipated to fluctuate between 12,800-13,500 USD/ton, with domestic prices ranging from 98,000-104,000 RMB/ton due to weak demand and high inventories [49][50]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise, with current COMEX gold trading at 5,015.50 USD/ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.95% recently but a strong long-term outlook [15][16]. - Silver prices are also projected to increase, driven by industrial demand and investment interest, with current prices at 78.44 USD/ounce [15][16]. 4. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints from Zimbabwe, while cobalt supply may tighten due to slow shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][4]. - Nickel prices are projected to rise, supported by supply tightening from Indonesia and strong demand from the stainless steel sector [2][4].